Although Aleksandar Vučić frequently emphasizes his disdain for communism, in practice he actively perpetuates its legacy. Following the model of leaders from the Soviet Union and Josip Broz Tito’s Yugoslavia, the outgoing Serbian president periodically unveils grandiose “five-year plans” reminiscent of socialist-era economic programs.
Following initiatives like Serbia 2025 and Leap into the Future – Serbia 2027, Vučić recently presented his latest plan, which he ambitiously aims to execute personally by 2035. While these proposals are clearly not serious development strategies, they serve a political purpose: in the absence of tangible results, the regime offers voters empty promises that require neither investment nor accountability.
The track record of his previous plans underscores the hollow nature of these promises: deadlines were repeatedly postponed, costs skyrocketed, and objectives were continuously revised. The primary function of these plans has been to mobilize voters, justify major public investments, and support state-backed projects such as Expo 2027—projects that will burden Serbian citizens financially while benefiting Vučić and his corrupt network.
The economic reality tells a stark story. While the nominal average salary may have reached €1,000, real purchasing power has been eroded by high inflation and an overvalued dinar—making today’s €1,000 roughly equivalent to €550 in 2012. Even projects that have been partially realized, like the Morava Corridor, have seen costs balloon from an initial €750 million to over €2.15 billion, reflecting Serbia’s pervasive corruption.
Notably, Vučić’s plans make no mention of institutions, yet sustainable economic growth depends on strong governance, an efficient judiciary, protection of private property, and a functioning democracy. Instead, recent years have seen rising corruption, the erosion of democratic freedoms, and the subjugation of institutions to the interests of a single individual.
Serbian economists openly acknowledge that the current growth model is outdated and insufficient to bring the country to the level of the less-developed EU states. Serbia remains at roughly 60% of the average EU GDP per capita. Vučić projects that €50 billion will be invested by 2035, but he offers no clear sources for these funds, implying reliance on debt and state resources—a plan that is far from promising.
By contrast, Poland today ranks among the world’s 20 strongest economies, thanks in part to effective use of over €10 billion annually from EU funds—double the scale of Vučić’s plans. This starkly highlights the deficiencies of his dilettante economic approach. Real growth in Central and Eastern Europe requires accelerated reforms and alignment with EU and NATO standards before meaningful economic progress can be achieved.
Due to flawed economic policies and kleptocratic governance, Serbia’s foreign direct investment and GDP growth halved last year. At this pace, Serbia will remain behind the least-developed EU members for decades, with the EU average permanently out of reach.
Vučić’s vision for Serbia—a backward, isolated, and corrupt state with perpetual, even hereditary, personal rule—is now fully visible. This reality explains why Serbia under his leadership is unlikely ever to join the European Union.
The choice facing Serbia is no longer between alternative development plans, but between reality and deception: a state moving forward versus a regime masking failure with ever-new empty promises. As long as governance follows the logic of these irresponsible “five-year plans,” the country’s future will remain mere rhetoric. Reform is no longer just a political matter—it is a question of survival and sustainable development, with mounting costs of failure that no state can absorb.
