An analysis published by Serbian outlet Radar argues that a turnout of approximately 69% in the October 25 parliamentary elections could significantly reshape the balance of power in Serbia, potentially giving a student-backed electoral list and its opposition partners a parliamentary majority.
The analysis, written by Petar Gonja, estimates that around 4.43 million voters could cast ballots if participation rises substantially compared with the 2023 elections. Under this scenario, the student-backed list and potential opposition partners could secure 128 parliamentary seats, while the coalition led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) could win 115 seats. Minority lists are projected to obtain seven seats.
These figures are estimates presented by the author, rather than confirmed election results or independently verified forecasts.
Higher Turnout Could Bring More Voters to the Polls
According to the analysis, Serbia’s unified electoral register contains 6,450,523 eligible voters ahead of the October 25 vote.
The author identifies increased political engagement among young people, previously abstaining voters and the Serbian diaspora as potential factors that could raise turnout.
Citing research by the umbrella organisation of young people in Serbia (KOMS), the article suggests that as many as 900,000 young people could participate in the election. It compares this with an estimated 620,000 young voters who participated in previous elections, potentially bringing around 280,000 additional voters to the polls.
The analysis also estimates that approximately 300,000 previous non-voters could participate this time. In addition, it points to increased registration among Serbian citizens living abroad.
According to the article, 102,000 citizens living abroad registered to vote, compared with approximately 36,000 who voted through diplomatic and consular missions in 2023.
Combining these factors, the author estimates that turnout could reach approximately 4.43 million voters, or nearly 69% of the registered electorate. The article contains slightly different estimates of the increase in participation in separate sections, however, making the precise calculation uncertain.
SNS and SPS Face a Changing Electoral Landscape
The analysis examines the SNS’s electoral performance since 2012, when the party won 940,560 votes. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the SNS secured 1,736,920 votes, a substantial increase over its initial result.
Gonja argues that the party’s support subsequently stabilised at around 1.75 million votes and questions whether it could substantially increase that figure in the forthcoming election.
The article also examines the performance of the SPS, the SNS’s long-standing coalition partner. The Socialists received 567,689 votes in 2012, compared with 249,916 in 2023, according to the figures cited in the analysis.
The author argues that internal divisions within the SPS, including the exclusion of Branko Ružić, could further affect the party’s performance. The possibility of the SPS falling below the electoral threshold is presented as a scenario, not an established outcome.
The article further suggests that increased turnout could affect the representation of minority lists, which it estimates may win seven seats, compared with 12 following the 2023 elections.
Parliamentary Majority Would Depend on Coalition Arrangements
Under the scenario outlined by Gonja, the SNS-led coalition and SPS could collectively receive around two million votes, while other electoral lists could obtain approximately 2.3 million.
Based on the author’s calculations, a student-backed list and potential opposition partners that cross the electoral threshold could secure 128 seats. The SNS-led coalition and SPS would hold 115 seats, while minority lists would account for the remaining seven.
The author also considers the possibility that five of the seven minority-list MPs could support the student-backed list and its potential opposition partners after the election. If that occurred, the grouping could reach 133 seats in the 250-member National Assembly.
This outcome would depend on the actual election results, which lists cross the electoral threshold and the post-election decisions of minority representatives.
Turnout Identified as a Key Variable
The article concludes that voter participation will be a central factor in determining the composition of Serbia’s next parliament. It attributes the potential increase in turnout to student mobilisation, outreach beyond major cities and growing participation among groups that have previously been less active in elections.
The projections remain conditional on the assumptions used in the analysis. Actual turnout, vote distribution and coalition negotiations will determine the final allocation of parliamentary seats.
