The European Union is soon to change its top team, and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is frequently mentioned as Josep Borrell’s successor as the new head of EU diplomacy. Often called “Europe’s New Iron Lady,” Kallas has consistently supported Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations. This raises the question: How will her selection impact the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue? “Do we have reasons to be concerned?” asks pro-government Serbian media.
Dragisha Mijačić, Director of the Institute for Territorial Economic Development, predicts stronger pressures on Serbia regarding foreign policy. “Kaja Kallas hails from Estonia, a country directly impacted by the war in Ukraine. If appointed as High Representative, we can expect increased pressure on Serbia to align with the EU’s common foreign and security policy, particularly in forming a unified political and diplomatic front against Russia, and further European integration of Serbia,” Mijačić notes.
Changes in Dialogue
Regarding the dialogue with Pristina, the EU will continue to insist on implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization and its annex from Ohrid. In this context, the selection of a new High Representative will not play a significant role.
“If significant security breaches occur in Kosovo or drastic violations of the Dialogue Agreement, the high representative will play a key role in determining measures against either party,” Mijačić emphasizes.
Former diplomat Srecko Gjukić tells “Blic” that there’s no inherent reason to view Kallas’s potential high EU position negatively. He adds that the commissioner, if appointed, will consistently implement agreements made between Belgrade and Pristina.
Troubles for Serbia
All new names will be revealed by September, while the EU Special Representative for Dialogue, Miroslav Lajčak, will remain in his role until January. Former Slovenian President Borut Pahor is often mentioned as Lajčak’s successor. “The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is one of the most important positions within the European Union, especially considering the global security situation, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and geostrategic changes,” Mijačić emphasizes.
He recalls that the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is one of the high representative’s competencies, but it is unknown whether the new appointee will be directly responsible for negotiations, as was the case with Catherine Ashton and Federica Mogherini, or if a special envoy will be appointed as with Borrell and Lajčak.
“Given the current global challenges, it is more realistic to expect a special envoy to be appointed again, likely in the fall,” Mijačić observes.
Who is Kaja Kallas?
A lawyer by profession and leader of Estonia’s Reform Party, she is the first woman to serve as Estonia’s Prime Minister (since 2021) since the Baltic state’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. In late 2023, she was interested in a leading NATO position, joining the candidate circle to succeed Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. She is on Russia’s wanted list, with Moscow not disclosing exact charges. Due to her strong anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian views, Kallas quickly gained a reputation as one of the EU’s biggest “hawks.” She strongly opposed any EU-Russia cooperation, such as the Nord Stream pipeline, which she called a “geopolitical, not economic, project.”
