France’s new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, begins his work this week, tasked with forming a new cabinet, advancing the budget bill, and, perhaps most uncertain, seeking support for a long-term budget proposal aimed at addressing the country’s fiscal problems—a move that led to the downfall of his predecessor.
The tasks and expectations are high for Bayrou, 73, a veteran centrist politician and long-time mayor of the southwestern city of Pau. Appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, Bayrou is the country’s fourth prime minister this year, and he faces a deeply divided lower house, split between powerful left-wing and far-right factions.
Farmers, teachers, hospital workers, and railway employees are among the thousands who have taken to the streets in recent months to protest agricultural imports, labor issues, and other grievances. Instability in France is also a concern for the European Union, given Russia’s territorial advances in Ukraine and the risk that the transatlantic relationship may weaken with the arrival of a new U.S. administration.
“Nothing suggests that his mandate will be any longer, or better, than the others,” wrote France’s leading newspaper Le Monde in an editorial about Bayrou.
The most urgent challenge is in the French overseas territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, where Cyclone Chido has caused widespread destruction and left hundreds, if not thousands, dead, according to French authorities. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau visited Mayotte on Monday.
Bayrou, leader of the small MoDem (Democratic Movement) party, part of President Macron’s center-alliance, acknowledges that he faces a mountain of challenges. France’s budget deficit is estimated at over 6% of its GDP, double the EU limit, and the country is also dealing with a significant debt.
“My first mission is to build, and if I fail to do that, at least to repair the damage,” Bayrou said in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche published on Sunday.
The risk is also high for President Macron, who appears considerably weakened after a politically disastrous year. The French president played the card of early parliamentary elections earlier this year after the far-right “National Rally” party won the European Parliament elections in June. He watched as his centrist coalition became the weakest block in the French National Assembly, after an alliance of the left and National Rally.
The Risk for Europe
So far, President Macron has resisted calls to resign, insisting that he will serve out his mandate, which ends in 2027. However, analysts suggest he could become a weak president, leading the second-largest power in the European Union during a challenging time for the bloc. A strong supporter of Ukraine, Macron has long urged the EU to strengthen its defense.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the German parliament on Monday, pushing the EU’s largest economy toward early elections in February.
“Instability and unrest in France could impact the European Union’s ability to present unity and leadership,” analysts Camille Grand, Camille Lons, and Pawel Zerka from the European Council on Foreign Relations write. “Especially in light of the increased security risks posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the incoming U.S. President, Donald Trump,” they add.
With France “mired in internal problems,” analysts note, “other European countries will need to show readiness to take ambitious actions,” including developing a plan to support Ukraine in the coming weeks before President Trump takes office.
Bayrou, who has run for president three times and served as Minister of Education from 1993 to 1997, succeeds former Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who resigned earlier this month following a vote of no confidence over disagreements regarding the budget. /VOA
