Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau issued a stark warning on February 18, 2025, cautioning that any pause or “freeze” in the Ukraine conflict could embolden Russia to escalate its military threat against NATO.
- The report assesses that while a direct Russian-NATO confrontation in 2025 remains unlikely due to Moscow’s resources being focused on Ukraine, a “frozen” war would free up Russian forces to bolster their military presence along NATO’s northeastern borders, including the Baltic states, within the next five years.
- U.S. President Donald Trump‘s recent announcement of peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war has raised alarms, as it could allow Russia to rebuild its military capabilities.
- Latvian intelligence also highlights ongoing efforts by Russian special services to conduct sabotage and disrupt critical infrastructure across Europe, as part of Moscow’s long-term military strategy to weaken the West.
The agency further predicts that, despite Russia’s economic challenges due to sanctions and capital flight, the country is unlikely to collapse but may experience significant weakening over time.
This comes after Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warned that Russia could be preparing for a potential “large-scale war” in Europe within the next five years.
