The decision by the United States to limit its intelligence support to Ukraine will significantly harm Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against Russia, but it will not mean the end of Ukraine’s efforts to fight, officials and analysts say.
The decision by the United States to limit its intelligence support to Ukraine will significantly harm Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against Russia, but it will not mean the end of Ukraine’s efforts to fight, officials and analysts say.
On March 5, Washington announced that it had imposed restrictions on sharing intelligence information with Ukraine after previously suspending military aid to Kyiv.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the new restrictions on intelligence sharing were due to President Donald Trump’s concerns about his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, regarding his commitment to peace following a disastrous meeting between them in the Oval Office last week.
How is Ukraine using U.S. intelligence?
The scope, nature, and impact of U.S. intelligence assistance to Ukraine have not been disclosed. It is also unclear to what extent the sharing of intelligence has been suspended or which specific areas are affected.
Two U.S. defense officials told CNN on March 7 that the United States continues to share intelligence with Ukraine to support defensive operations but has “limited” the provision of intelligence that could be used to strike Russian forces.
Some experts and politicians speaking to Radio Free Europe (RFE) said that the United States provides Ukraine with key data—collected through sophisticated satellite surveillance, signal interception, and human-source information—on the location and movement of Russian troops, heavy weaponry, and their planned attacks.
Maxar, an American company offering high-resolution satellite imagery, told Current Time that its Ukrainian clients are facing restrictions on access to data provided by the United States.
“Maxar has contracts with the U.S. Government and dozens of allied and partner states worldwide to provide satellite imagery and other geospatial data,” a Maxar spokesperson said for Current Time.
“One of these contracts is GEGD, a U.S. government program that offers access to commercial satellite imagery, which is designated and collected by the U.S. government. The U.S. government has decided to temporarily suspend Ukrainian accounts in GEGD,” they said.
U.S. intelligence data has enabled the Ukrainian military to plan its strikes and operations, as well as receive timely warnings about Russian airstrikes and ground assaults, experts said.
Since Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, have been repeatedly targeted by airstrikes.
Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, said that the lack of vital U.S. intelligence puts the “lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians at greater risk.”
“Can we still hit the enemy [without foreign intelligence]? Yes, of course. For example, we can target stationary objectives, such as a distant airstrip, which we already know about,” Kostenko, a former military commander, said.
“But [we rely on U.S. intelligence] to see in real-time if there are planes there, if they are preparing to take off and attack Ukraine,” he added.
Ukraine also depends on U.S. data for using its High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which are among the most advanced artillery systems in the world.
Experts said that the suspension of intelligence sharing also includes data on HIMARS and ATACMS, which means that Ukraine will be unable to use them against Russia.
Advanced Systems and Spies
Describing U.S. intelligence as “superior” and “unmatched,” Russian intelligence analyst Ruslan Leviev, based in New York, said that the United States possesses a vast network of reconnaissance satellites, advanced technology, and far greater financial resources to invest in its intelligence capabilities.
“When Russian bombers head toward the border to launch missiles, U.S. intelligence can detect this long before. [The United States] can even eavesdrop on internal communications from Russia’s Ministry of Defense, where orders are given to plan flights or carry out attacks on specific targets. This means the United States could know about an attack even before the planes take off,” Leviev told RFE.
Leviev, founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent organization investigating Russian military activities, also emphasized that the United States has “more capability” than any other country to recruit agents on the ground.
Can Ukraine Survive with Less U.S. Intelligence?
Experts and politicians agree that Washington’s decision to limit intelligence sharing will place Ukraine in a difficult and less favorable position in its fight against Russia.
However, some Ukrainians hope that the country will fill the intelligence gap with information provided by other Western allies, as well as its own sources.
France has stated that its sharing of intelligence with Ukraine has not been affected by the U.S. decision.
According to British media, the United Kingdom will continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine, although it will not pass on the data received from the United States.
Roman Bezsmertniy, former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus, said that it is “incorrect” to attribute all critical intelligence information for Kyiv’s offensive and defensive operations “exclusively to U.S. agencies, especially operational-tactical intelligence.”
“France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada have similar capabilities for gathering intelligence. There is no shortage of intelligence, and securing such information is not a problem,” Bezsmertniy said.
Similarly, Mykola Melnyk, an expert at the Leviathan analytical group based in Kyiv, said that the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing is not a “disaster” for Kyiv, as it still has support from “powerful intelligence structures in countries like the United Kingdom and France.”
However, many experts emphasize that intelligence data from other Western allies and that gathered by Ukraine itself cannot match the scale and quality of that from the United States, and can only partially fill the gap left by the suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing.
