In a typical situation, elections for the 31-member Inatsisartut, or Greenland’s Parliament, would receive little attention. The world’s largest island, with a population of only 60,000 people, was rarely in the news.
However, this began to change in January of this year when then incoming U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in taking control of the territory—a strategically located island rich in resources.
This move caused shockwaves across Europe, especially for Denmark—NATO’s ally—of which Greenland is actually a part.
Therefore, all eyes are now expected to be on the March 11 elections, called by Greenland’s Prime Minister, Mute Egede, after Trump’s statement.
Domestic issues are part of the election campaign, but the main question is clear: should Greenland align with America, stay with Denmark, or become independent?
The majority of Greenlanders do not want to become American, and none of the five parties in parliament support this.
Together with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Egede has made it clear that Greenland, which is an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark, is not for sale and that only Greenlanders can decide its future.
Recently, the parliament also passed a law prohibiting anonymous and foreign donations to the electoral campaign.
But what if an offer arises that they cannot refuse?
The United States first expressed interest in the island in the 19th century, and in fact, Greenland is closer to North America than to mainland Europe. Its security is also guaranteed by an American airbase in the north.
And the Arctic is, of course, not outside the ambitions of major powers. Both China and Russia are active in the region, not only for the lucrative rare materials found there but also due to warmer temperatures melting the sea ice and opening profitable trade routes.
Even if the island does not become American anytime soon, there could be some kind of free trade or association agreement with Washington.
However, Greenlanders may also be a conservative group. Where others might see profitable business opportunities, many of them see a homeland that must be protected.
Currently, there are only two mines in Greenland, and the last election in 2021 was dominated by the public decision to limit oil and gas exploration and ban uranium mining.
And here, Denmark stands out. Three of the five political parties want independence from Denmark, including the left-wing People’s Community Party, led by Prime Minister Egede. This party finished first four years ago and is likely to come first again.
The same applies to the current coalition partner, the Social Democratic Forward Party, which aims to finish second.
The Liberal Democratic Party, which prefers to stay with Denmark, is also doing well in the polls and could complicate any coalition-building efforts or the direction Greenland will ultimately take.
While the majority of Greenlanders say they want independence, they also want to preserve their standard of living. For this, the territory is largely dependent on Denmark.
Having been loyal to the Danish currency since 1814, 50% of Greenland’s exports go to Denmark, and 60% of its imports come from Denmark.
Half of the population works in the public sector, which is largely financed by grants from Copenhagen.
Furthermore, to increase security around the island, the Danish government promised last month 2 billion euros to improve defense in the Arctic.
In Greenland, a commission is working on what a possible separation from Denmark would look like, and essentially, it would require three steps.
Firstly, there would need to be an agreement with Copenhagen on what the separation would look like; secondly, there would need to be a positive result in a referendum for independence; and thirdly, the Danish Parliament would need to give the green light to the entire effort.
The pro-independence parties want the referendum to take place during the next four-year term, but given the uncertainties surrounding the territory, it is certainly not expected to happen in 2025.
