Political tensions in the Balkans are escalating, with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik facing their most challenging moments in power. Croatian political analyst Denis Avdagić suggests that Vučić is making increasingly desperate moves while Dodik has crossed multiple “red lines” that could lead to serious consequences.
In Serbia, student protests against Vučić’s government have continued since November 2024, following a deadly accident in Novi Sad. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing its deepest political crisis in three decades, with Dodik sentenced to a year in prison and banned from political office. The situation escalated when Bosnia’s Prosecutor’s Office called for his arrest, prompting the Republika Srpska parliament to push for a new entity constitution.
Avdagić believes that Vučić’s recent actions—such as mishandling incidents involving protesters—have made it difficult for him to backtrack. He draws a parallel with former Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević, suggesting that if tensions worsen, Vučić and Dodik may seek refuge in Moscow. However, he questions whether they have fulfilled all expectations from the Kremlin to secure such an escape route.
