Successive U.S. administrations have long urged European allies to share more of the collective defense burden. But former President Donald Trump took a more direct approach, openly questioning why the U.S. should pay to protect wealthy European nations, reports RFE.
According to Leon Aron, a Russian-American scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Trump’s tough rhetoric “woke Europe from its decades-long security slumber.”
“Trump woke Europe—whether he meant to or not,” Aron told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “Europeans didn’t like it, but in the end, I think the result was healthy.“
Europe Steps Up, But Faces a Long Road
Aron pointed out that Trump alone didn’t spur Europe’s defense awakening. A critical factor was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which launched the largest war on the continent in 80 years.
“The combination of Trump’s pressure and the Ukraine war forced Europeans to finally take their defense commitments seriously,” Aron said.
While only three NATO members met the 2% defense spending threshold a decade ago, most do now. Still, decades of underinvestment left a significant gap, Aron cautioned.
As Trump pushes to reallocate U.S. military power to the Indo-Pacific to contain China, Europe may struggle to fill the void.
“It will take Europe years to compensate for America’s reduced military presence,” Aron explained.
Trump’s Personal Diplomacy With Putin Raises Alarms
Since his second term began, Trump has sought a negotiated end to the Ukraine war. After several failed attempts to broker a 30-day ceasefire, Trump said on May 16 that only a personal meeting with Putin could end the conflict.
On May 19, Trump spoke with Putin by phone for the third time, reportedly suggesting that a ceasefire depends on Kyiv and Moscow agreeing to territorial terms and the deployment of peacekeepers.
Aron warned that Trump’s approach plays into Putin’s hands:
“Putin likely believes he can manipulate Trump,” Aron said. “All he has to do is massage his ego from time to time—and unfortunately, it seems to be working.”
China Is Watching—and Learning
The drawn-out war in Ukraine has global strategic implications, particularly for Trump’s focus on countering China.
“If the Trump administration really wants to avoid war over Taiwan, it must ensure Putin doesn’t walk away rewarded,” said Aron.
China, he noted, is heavily supporting Russia’s war effort, particularly by buying Russian oil, which finances a large portion of Moscow’s military budget.
“Without China, this war wouldn’t exist,” Aron stated plainly.
Trump’s Trade Wars and the Global South
Trump’s protectionist trade policies could also backfire. By imposing 10% tariffs on most countries—including allies—he risks pushing Europe, especially Germany, back toward China.
“Germany got rich exporting luxury goods to China. If locked out of the U.S. market, they may return to Xi Jinping’s orbit,” Aron warned.
In the Global South, countries like Vietnam, Congo, and Zimbabwe could also pivot toward China if U.S. market access shrinks.
U.S. Pullback from Africa Would Be a Strategic Mistake
Trump plans to cut foreign aid and possibly reduce diplomatic presence in Africa, which Aron says would be a major error.
“Russia and China will gladly fill the void, and even terrorist groups could take advantage,” he said, citing instability in Nigeria and Mali.
Even symbolic U.S. presence matters, he argued, and warned against underestimating Africa’s strategic value.
