On the eve of the Eid al-Adha holiday, Israel carried out one of its most significant waves of attacks since November 27, 2023. Yesterday evening, the Jewish state launched a series of strikes against Beirut’s southern suburbs, targeting at least four neighborhoods with stated objectives of destroying buildings whose basements were allegedly used to manufacture and store drones.
Fortunately, the Israeli army had reportedly called for the evacuation of the affected neighborhoods prior to the strikes. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun made efforts to prevent the operations, even proposing that the Lebanese army take over the five designated target buildings. However, his attempts were firmly refused by Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz justified these strikes by stating, “Agreements must be respected, and if you don’t do what’s required – we will continue to act with great force.” Lebanese President Aoun responded by characterizing the raids as indiscriminate attacks against all of Lebanon, while Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned them as a flagrant violation of Lebanese sovereignty and a breach of UN Resolution 1701.
Despite the heightened tensions, air traffic at Beirut International Airport remained undisrupted.
A Clear and Direct Message
Observers suggest that Israel’s escalation sends a “clear and direct message” to the Lebanese government regarding the slow pace of disarming Hezbollah. The strikes also occurred the day after a missile attack from southern Syria towards the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, claimed by the previously unknown “Syrian Islamic Resistance.” This group’s name has led some to believe it carries the hallmark of Hezbollah, given its very name, “Islamic Resistance.”
Regardless, the primary warning is perceived to be addressed to President Joseph Aoun to uphold his commitment regarding the Lebanese state’s monopoly on arms, a demand made by both Israel and the United States. President Aoun has attributed the relative slowness of the disarmament process to efforts to avoid a confrontation between Shia militias and the Lebanese army, with some high-level officials explaining that “Power in Lebanon is not autocratic like in Syria, and cannot be as effective,” also noting that the president only took office five months prior.
Hezbollah and “Slow Diplomacy”
Hezbollah claims that while the dismantling of the party’s positions south of the Litani River appears almost complete, with no fewer than 500 positions reportedly handed over to the army, there is no question of doing the same elsewhere until Israel fulfills its part of the bargain by ceasing strikes and assassinations, releasing Lebanese prisoners, and withdrawing from five sites it maintains as “observation points” inside Lebanese territory.
This argument suggests that the Shia movement might be drawing inspiration from the “slow-motion diplomacy” practiced by Iran in its nuclear discussions. This approach is also evident in the Lebanese decision to gradually disarm 12 Palestinian camps in Lebanon, starting June 15. This decision, made hastily during Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s recent visit to Lebanon, faces refusal from factions like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, particularly present in Ain el-Helweh, near Saïda, Lebanon’s largest camp, who do not recognize the Palestinian leader’s authority.
Israel’s Impatience with US Policy
Thursday’s raids can also be explained, according to some analyses, by a certain impatience on Israel’s part regarding a potential reversal of US policy in the Middle East. In recent weeks, three US officials known for their closeness to Israel reportedly appear to have been sidelined from the Donald Trump administration: Merav Ceren (National Security Council’s senior official for Israel and Iran), Eric Trager (senior official for the Middle East and North Africa), and notably, Morgan Ortagus, the US envoy to Lebanon.
The sidelining of Ortagus, described as a “hawk” known for her outspokenness and somewhat extreme positions, is reportedly deeply regretted in the Israeli press. There are particular fears that, as the US president’s foreign policy evolves, she might be replaced by a more conciliatory figure.
