Robert Einhorn, former U.S. special advisor and negotiator, views the Israel-Iran ceasefire, mediated by President Trump, as a positive step towards diplomacy. However, he warns that while U.S. and Israeli strikes likely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow, an urgent risk remains: 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium are unaccounted for, a quantity that could support a secret weapons program. Einhorn emphasizes this can only be resolved through diplomacy, not military action.
Weakened Iran, Difficult Diplomacy
Einhorn suggests Iran’s regional standing and deterrent capability have been significantly weakened, which could either push hardliners towards nuclear weapons or prompt a more cautious approach. Despite this, he notes that deep mistrust and rigid stances, particularly on uranium enrichment, make a quick agreement unlikely. He proposes creative solutions like a regional enrichment consortium or economic incentives to give the U.S. a vested interest in upholding any future deal.
Strikes Set Back Program by Years
He estimates the strikes have set back Iran’s program by “years,” but the missing uranium is a “serious shortcoming.” Einhorn believes dialogue will be difficult, likely starting with U.S.-Iran contacts facilitated by third countries like Qatar and Oman. He stressed that while U.S. administrations cannot legally bind successors, making a deal a treaty or allowing U.S. business investment in Iran could increase its longevity.
