Oil prices rose on Friday, but projections indicate they are on track for the steepest decline since March 2023.
The absence of major supply disruptions due to the Iran-Israel conflict has nearly eliminated geopolitical risk premiums.
Brent crude rose by 54 cents, or 0.8%, reaching $68.26 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 60 cents, or approximately 0.9%, to $65.83 per barrel.
During the 12-day conflict that began on June 13, following Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Brent prices temporarily climbed above $80 per barrel but later dropped to $67 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the two countries. As a result, both contracts are heading for a weekly decline of around 12%.
“The market has almost completely dismissed last week’s geopolitical risk and is returning to an economy-driven dynamic,” said Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah.
Focus is also turning to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, which is expected to determine production levels for August.
According to analysts, there may be room for another month of accelerated production cuts, depending on summer demand indicators.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released Wednesday showed that crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, while refinery activity and demand rose.
Additionally, Thursday’s data indicated that gasoil stockpiles at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub dropped to their lowest level in over a year.
At the same time, China’s imports of Iranian oil surged in June, driven by accelerated shipments ahead of escalating conflict and increased demand from independent refineries.
China remains the world’s largest oil importer and the primary buyer of Iranian crude.
According to ship tracking firm Vortexa, China purchased over 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian oil during the period of June 1–20 — a record based on the firm’s data.
