A political shock for AfD in the Sunday question for BILD: The far-right party has overtaken the CDU/CSU, reaching 26% (+1) – the highest value in the history of all INSA polls! The CDU/CSU Union remains at 25%, behind the largest opposition party.
The SPD has also slightly increased: 15% (+1). The Greens fall to 11% (–1), tying with The Left Party (11%, unchanged). All other parties remain at the same level.
A Clear Majority for AfD and the CDU/CSU Union
► The current “black-red” governing coalition under Chancellor Merz and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) would only secure 40%, falling short of a majority.
► A “red-red-green” coalition would likewise lack a sufficient majority, with only 37% support to govern.
► The situation is different for the CDU/CSU Union and AfD: together, the two parties would secure a clear majority of 51%. This time, AfD would even be the stronger partner.
SPD Was Ahead of the CDU/CSU Just 3 Years Ago
Since INSA began conducting polls for BILD, either the CDU/CSU Union or the SPD had always led. That is no longer the case. The last time the Social Democrats were ahead of the CDU/CSU Union was on March 12, 2022, with 26% compared to the Union’s 24%. Now, AfD has surpassed the CDU/CSU, becoming the largest political force. A turning point – also for how politics deals with the party.
At the same time, Friedrich Merz (69, CDU) continues to lose popularity: only one in four people are satisfied with the Chancellor and the government. Two-thirds are dissatisfied – including many SPD voters.
Among Union supporters, approval remains higher, but even here 32% now state they are “dissatisfied” with Merz and 38% with the government.
► Conclusion: Neither Merz nor his cabinet are managing to shift public sentiment. The negative trend continues.
