Timothy Garton Ash warns that American democracy is under severe threat, and the Democratic Party has 400 days to begin restoring checks and balances before the midterm elections in November 2026. If Democrats regain control of the House, there will still be roughly 700 days to ensure a peaceful transfer of executive power, a critical step to preserving the republic.
Ash highlights the speed and intensity with which President Donald Trump has attacked democratic norms, noting the weak resistance to these attacks. He emphasizes that once liberal democracy erodes, it is very difficult to restore. The Congressional midterms are crucial because the legislature is the main constitutional tool to limit presidential power.
Key challenges he identifies:
- Excessive executive power: Trump has exploited loopholes and openly defied court rulings, expanding executive authority beyond precedent.
- Gerrymandering: Extreme partisan redistricting undermines fair representation; the Supreme Court has declined to intervene.
- Endemic violence: Political and gun-related violence, including mass shootings and targeted attacks like the killing of Charlie Kirk, creates a climate of fear.
- Exploitation of competitive capitalism: Leaders can leverage intense market competition and societal pressures to consolidate influence.
Ash notes failures among universities, businesses, law firms, media platforms, and tech companies to respond effectively, often bowing to fear of reprisals or currying favor with Trump.
He warns that voter suppression and threats to mail-in voting cast doubt on whether the 2026 elections will be truly free and fair. Democrats must work to ensure fairness and clearly communicate the economic costs of Trump’s policies, especially regarding tariffs, employment, and national debt.
The next step—the 2028 presidential election—depends on success in these immediate challenges. Ash concludes that, despite serious threats, the first rule of democratic politics remains: win the next election.
