Russia is providing military equipment and training to China that could aid Beijing in preparing an airborne invasion of Taiwan, according to an analysis by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), based on leaked Russian documents.
The documents, obtained from the Black Moon hacktivist group and analyzed by RUSI, include contracts, equipment lists, and delivery timelines for items such as high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. While they suggest that Russia has begun work on the equipment, there is no direct evidence that China has yet received or paid for it.
RUSI analysts argue that the equipment could help China develop advanced airborne capabilities, potentially accelerating its invasion readiness by 10–15 years. High-ranking U.S. officials have suggested that President Xi Jinping has instructed the military to prepare for a possible Taiwan invasion as early as 2027.
Key equipment and training details:
- Airborne battalion kit: Light amphibious assault vehicles, airborne armored personnel carriers, command and observation vehicles.
- High-altitude parachutes: Capable of drops from 8,000 meters (26,250 feet), allowing forces to glide up to 80 km (50 miles).
- Training: Russian instructors to provide command and control guidance for parachute forces.
RUSI notes that the greatest value to China may be Russia’s combat experience in airborne operations, which Beijing currently lacks. Analysts suggest Moscow’s goal is both to develop China as a military client and potentially draw the U.S. into a distraction from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Historical context shows Russian airborne troops have struggled operationally in Ukraine, failing to secure key airfields early in the conflict. Nevertheless, the sale is seen as a strategic move for China to improve airborne logistics and prepare for a potential invasion.
Experts emphasize that while parachute operations may not be the primary method for a Taiwan invasion, Chinese forces could reverse-engineer Russian equipment for broader military applications, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Russia, China, and Taiwan have not immediately commented on the report.
