As France faces a growing budget deficit crisis and a deepening political deadlock, European officials and investors are increasingly alarmed about President Emmanuel Macron’s weakening grip on power, according to a detailed analysis published by Politico on Tuesday.
The outlet reports that the uncertainty surrounding Macron’s next moves has rattled markets and governments alike, as France’s instability now poses a direct risk to the eurozone.
“France is too big to fail, and this endless political instability puts the entire eurozone at risk,” said one EU diplomat, speaking anonymously to Politico. “It’s the main topic of nervous conversation across European capitals.”
France — the EU’s second-largest economy, only nuclear power, and a permanent member of the UN Security Council — has long been a key driver of European policy. Under Macron’s leadership, it rivaled Germany in shaping the EU’s direction. But now, with Macron’s government collapsing after only 14 hours in office, markets have been shaken by the growing possibility of snap elections that could bring Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) closer to power than ever before.
In Brussels and beyond, officials fear that Macron’s declining influence could fatally weaken Europe’s leadership on international issues — particularly in Ukraine and Gaza — and expose the eurozone to further economic vulnerability.
Market Reaction and Economic Fears
The French stock index CAC 40 dropped by 1.4% on Monday, while the euro weakened against the dollar following the sudden collapse of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s short-lived administration.
“There are already major concerns about the eurozone economy,” another EU official told Politico. “This is the last thing we need.”
Despite assurances from French officials that the situation remains “under control,” analysts doubt that investors will remain confident.
“Macron spent eight years positioning France as Europe’s most attractive investment hub,” said Grégoire Roos, Europe and Russia program director at Chatham House. “But no major investor will choose France right now — not with this level of political and fiscal uncertainty.”
Political Obituary in Brussels
In Brussels, some EU diplomats are already writing Macron’s political obituary. After coming to power in 2017 and transforming French politics, he now appears a weakened leader whose influence is fading fast.
Macron’s concept of “strategic autonomy” — making Europe more self-reliant in defense and economics — has become a cornerstone of EU thinking, especially as Donald Trump distances the U.S. from Europe. But Macron’s political troubles may derail that momentum.
A Weakened Franco-German Engine
The EU’s strength has long relied on a solid Franco-German partnership. However, Macron’s turmoil makes it harder for France to coordinate effectively with Germany’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, whom Brussels views as dynamic but still dependent on France’s leadership to drive EU reforms.
“France’s voice is missing at a time when Russia is encroaching on Europe, China is flooding markets, and Trump’s America acts erratically,” said a senior French official. “France simply can’t deliver under these conditions.”
What Comes Next?
If Macron dissolves parliament and calls early elections, Le Pen’s far-right National Rally could make major gains. Polls currently place RN at 30–32%, similar to its performance in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
The far right across Europe is emboldened by Macron’s struggles. Le Pen recently celebrated Andrej Babiš’s victory in the Czech Republic, while Dutch populist Geert Wilders declared earlier this year, “Your time is up,” addressing Macron and other traditional European leaders.
Analysts warn that a Le Pen victory — or even a strong showing — could fundamentally alter Europe’s political landscape, threaten the stability of the euro, and reshape the EU’s balance of power for years to come.
