Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest and most well-known critics, has warned Europe to brace for a prolonged confrontation with Russia, regardless of how the war in Ukraine develops.
“We should expect some kind of new Cold War that could last at least ten years,” said the exiled businessman and former oil tycoon during a closed-door event in Brussels, as reported by Politico.
According to Khodorkovsky, the only thing that will prevent Russia from further aggression against Europe is Putin’s belief that the West poses a real military threat.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the West undermined each other without open conflict in Europe, avoiding the risk of nuclear war. Today, senior European and NATO officials believe Russia is reviving this policy of attrition, using hybrid warfare to destabilize Western countries and sow division.
“The Opportunity Has Been Missed”
Khodorkovsky, who spent ten years in prison under Putin’s regime and now lives in London, argued that Western sanctions have limited impact on the Kremlin, saying they pressure the Russian economy but are “nothing dramatic.”
He also downplayed the effect of Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries:
“Even the most powerful drone or a Tomahawk missile can hit no more than two hectares. A typical industrial complex in Siberia covers around 1,500 hectares. The damage is like stepping on someone’s foot,” he explained.
In his view, the only real chance to shake Putin’s rule was within the first two years of the invasion, had Russia suffered a military defeat.
“That opportunity was lost. In our tradition, dictators usually fall between the ages of 70 and 80,” he added with irony.
Putin turned 73 years old in October.
Kremlin Pressure Intensifies
Last month, Russian authorities opened a new criminal case against Khodorkovsky, accusing him of leading a terrorist organization and plotting to overthrow the government with the help of Ukrainian paramilitary groups.
The FSB (Federal Security Service) named 22 other individuals linked to Khodorkovsky’s Anti-War Committee of Russia, which includes exiled opposition figures, academics, and business leaders.
The charges came just two weeks after the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly announced the creation of a platform for dialogue with the Russian democratic opposition — a move that reportedly alarmed the Kremlin.
“The regime’s strong reaction shows how much Putin fears even the symbolic legitimacy of democratic Russian forces,” Khodorkovsky said.
Though most members of the committee live abroad, some have already faced banking issues in Europe, and the new terrorism accusations could complicate their travel due to possible extradition risks.
“My Generation Won’t See Russia Return to Normal”
Khodorkovsky expressed his belief that he will one day return to Russia after Putin’s fall, but warned that the country will need decades to shed its imperial-military ideology, which portrays Russia as surrounded by enemies and justifies aggression against its neighbors.
“My generation will not live to see the day when Russian society returns to normal,” he admitted.
When asked if he found this discouraging, Khodorkovsky smiled:
“When you work in heavy industry, you get used to starting processes that last longer than your lifetime. From exploring an oil field to starting production can take 15 years. The future is as real to me as the present — and that’s what keeps me motivated.”
