Energy expert Željko Marković told RTS that he does not expect the United States to issue the required license for the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS), warning that the Pančevo refinery is likely to halt operations completely. He also stressed that banks may soon block NIS accounts, a move that could push the company into bankruptcy.
According to Marković, the United States sees no reason to intervene, because sanctions remain in force and Serbia has not adjusted its policies, especially in relation to Russia.
Refinery Shutdown Imminent
Marković explained that without the license, the refinery will enter one of two “conservation regimes,” either a shorter nitrogen-based preservation lasting up to three months, or a full shutdown that would require four or more months to restart.
“Banks Will Likely Block NIS Accounts Soon”
Marković issued a clear warning:
“It can be expected that banks will soon block NIS accounts. In such a situation, NIS is no longer operational.”
Failure to service debts, he says, will automatically lead to bankruptcy procedures, asset liquidation and the appointment of a bankruptcy administrator.
Serbia Could Have Acted Differently — But Didn’t
Marković emphasized that Serbia had the option to follow the examples of Bulgaria or Germany, which took temporary control of strategic energy assets to protect national supply.
However, the Serbian government — led by President Aleksandar Vučić, who has long balanced between Moscow and the West — refused to take such measures.
By avoiding decisive action and maintaining political ambiguity toward Russia, Vučić’s government has pushed Serbia into a far riskier economic position, Marković suggested. The refusal to act now creates “immediate problems” for both the economy and inflation.
Vučić’s 50-Day Deadline “Meaningless If NIS Is Not Operating”
Marković also questioned President Vučić’s recent 50-day deadline for resolving the issue, noting that such a countdown only made sense if NIS continued to operate, which is no longer the case.
“If NIS isn’t working, waiting 50 days makes no sense — action should start immediately,” he said.
International Agreements Do Not Prevent State Intervention
Regarding the 2008 Serbia–Russia agreement on NIS, Marković said there is no explicit clause preventing Serbia from taking over NIS, especially in extraordinary circumstances.
He noted that even if Serbia intervenes now, the country may still face international lawsuits, but the alternative — doing nothing — could result in deeper structural damage.
