According to Srđan Cvijić, President of the International Advisory Board at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, Serbia’s democratic system has been under severe pressure for over a decade. He warns that if the ruling SNS party loses the upcoming elections in 2026 or 2027, the regime may refuse to recognize the results, potentially undermining democratic processes entirely.
Elections in Serbia have become increasingly irregular since 2022, with manipulations evolving, violence and electoral fraud adapting to secure desired outcomes. Recent local elections on November 30 highlighted the growing authoritarian tendencies of the regime, with results in municipalities like Mionica, Negotin, and Sečanj reminiscent of Serbia’s historical political crises.
“From 2022 to today, each election in Vučić’s Serbia has been more irregular than the previous one. Manipulations have evolved, violence and theft have adapted to meet the needs of the results,” Cvijić said.
While opposition parties and student movements are growing in influence, the regime has simultaneously consolidated power by changing laws to criminalize protests, preparing to capture the judiciary fully, and aiming to take control of remaining independent media outlets.
Cvijić emphasizes that internal divisions among democratic forces – between pro-European and nationalist factions, or student and civil society groups – play into the hands of the regime. Without unity and a social pact for post-authoritarian Serbia, democratic actors risk being outmaneuvered.
The path forward, Cvijić argues, requires a broad societal agreement beyond electoral strategy, focused on:
- Restoring democracy and the rule of law
- Ensuring free and independent media
- Reforming electoral laws and updating voter registries
- Creating an electoral system that prevents future monopolies
- Establishing non-aggression pacts and mechanisms for peaceful legal resistance
“If democratic actors fail to coordinate seriously, the outcome is predictable, and the cost will be unbearable,” Cvijić warns.
