Progress on one hand, stagnation on the other. This is how Donika Emini, a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy / Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), views the European Union’s enlargement conclusions regarding Kosovo.
Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Emini says the conclusions were expected, given the continuity of EU policy over the past five years.
However, she also highlights several positive developments, such as the lifting of punitive measures imposed on Kosovo in the summer of 2023 due to tensions in the Serb-majority north.
Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani announced on December 18 that the EU will lift all remaining measures by January 2026, enabling Kosovo to access additional funds.
Nevertheless, Emini stresses that the key issue for Kosovo’s progress toward the EU remains the Association of Serb-majority municipalities.
Kosovo and Serbia agreed on its establishment back in 2013, within the framework of the dialogue on normalization of relations.
Belgzim Kamberi, from the Musine Kokalari Institute for Social Policy in Pristina, likewise notes that the EU’s enlargement conclusions show that the approach toward Kosovo is closely linked to the implementation of the Agreement on the Normalization of Relations and the Agreement on the Path to Normalization, which Kosovo and Serbia accepted in principle in 2023.
According to him, these agreements also include the Association of Serb-majority municipalities, which Kosovo has refused to establish, arguing that some elements are not in line with Kosovo’s Constitution or laws.
In October 2023, representatives of the EU, the US, France, Germany, and Italy presented a draft statute for the Association. Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti—now acting—accepted it in principle, but later refused to send it to the Constitutional Court for review.
Kamberi believes that now, following the democratic transfer of authority in Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo and the partial lifting of EU measures, certain “positive signals” are emerging regarding this issue.
What Does the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities Envision?
The Association aims to grant Kosovo Serbs a certain level of self-management.
The initial agreement was reached in 2013, with principles harmonized two years later.
However, Kosovo authorities hesitated to form the Association under this agreement, arguing it could undermine the state’s internal functioning—similar to the case of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In 2015, Kosovo’s Constitutional Court found that some principles of the Association were not in line with the Constitution, but emphasized they could be adjusted through the Association’s statute or a government regulation.
The EU-drafted statute foresees regulation of the status of the Serb community, protection of their rights, and financing from Serbia.
The document stresses that the Association would not have executive powers and would not undermine Kosovo’s independence or territorial integrity. It must also be reviewed by Kosovo’s Constitutional Court.
What Do the EU’s Conclusions Say About Kosovo?
This week, the EU General Affairs Council adopted conclusions on the enlargement process.
Regarding Kosovo, the conclusions call for accelerated reforms, including implementation of the Normalization Agreement with Serbia, notably the establishment of the Association.
Kosovo remains the only Western Balkan country without EU candidate status, despite applying in December 2022.
The conclusions also emphasize reforms in public administration, rule of law, anti-corruption, and protection of fundamental freedoms.
They note progress in combating organized crime and praise the conduct of elections in February and October, as well as the participation of all communities.
The Association – A Key Step Toward EU Progress
Emini says that forming the Association remains a political obstacle for Kosovo on its path toward EU membership.
She adds that EU expectations for implementing the agreement come at a time when the bloc is making almost no effort to revive the Kosovo–Serbia dialogue.
Political dialogue has been stalled since September 2023, after an armed Serb group led by former Serb List deputy leader Milan Radoičić attacked Banjska in northern Kosovo, killing a police officer.
To resume dialogue, acting Prime Minister Kurti demands Radoičić’s extradition, which Serbia has refused.
“In essence, the EU is conditioning Kosovo’s European path not on a broad dialogue with Serbia, but solely on the formation of the Association, expecting Kosovo to act in a kind of vacuum,” Emini says.
She adds that the EU has focused on technical issues while sidelining broader political questions.
According to her, the issue cannot resolve itself.
Kamberi agrees that genuine implementation of the Association agreement remains key.
“Now that legitimate local authorities exist in northern municipalities, it is important that Kosovo, after the early elections on December 28, forms a new government. However, even then, there is a risk of renewed political deadlock due to disagreements over how the agreement should be implemented,” he says.
One major dilemma, he adds, is whether progress is possible without first agreeing on the sequencing of implementation steps.
Can Kosovo Avoid Establishing the Association?
Kamberi says the EU enlargement process is becoming increasingly geopolitical.
“In Kosovo’s case, progress is no longer measured solely by internal reforms, but primarily by readiness to implement agreements reached in dialogue with Serbia. Both Kosovo and Serbia will struggle to advance toward the EU without sustainably implementing the Normalization Agreement,” he says.
Emini believes Kosovo can delay this international obligation indefinitely without immediate political or institutional consequences, but stresses the complexity of the situation.
“The obligation is tied to EU expectations. However, the EU has not created a favorable environment for implementation. There are no guarantees—from Serbia or the EU—about concrete benefits for Kosovo, whether in terms of EU integration or recognition by the five non-recognizing EU states,” she says.
According to Emini, Kosovo finds itself at a dead end: delaying the Association brings EU criticism and slows integration, while unilateral actions are equally risky.
She argues that after signing the Normalization Agreement, Kosovo could have managed the situation better—by fostering public debate and preparing the Association statute with support from strategic allies such as the EU and the US.
Today, Emini says, expectations are that a new Kosovo government could gradually open the debate, change the narrative and approach toward the Association, and shape it in a way that would not cause internal dysfunction.
The goal would be to improve the lives of the Serb community in Kosovo, while simultaneously strengthening Kosovo’s position in the EU integration process and internationally.
Early parliamentary elections in Kosovo will be held on December 28, after Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Vetëvendosje movement failed to secure sufficient support to form a government following the February elections. /RFE/RL/
