Serbia’s government recorded a budget deficit of €1.63 billion in December 2025 alone, more than two and a half times higher than the cumulative deficit from the previous 11 months, according to information obtained from well-informed sources.
Although the Ministry of Finance officially reported that the budget deficit by the end of November 2025 stood at just 79.6 billion dinars, December spending dramatically altered the picture. Government expenditures exceeded revenues by 191.2 billion dinars in a single month, pushing the total 2025 deficit to approximately 270.8 billion dinars, or €2.3 billion.
Record-Breaking Spending in a Single Month
Sources indicate that in December alone, the Serbian government spent a record 399 billion dinars, the highest monthly expenditure in the country’s modern history. During the same period, budget revenues amounted to just 207.8 billion dinars, resulting in an unprecedented gap.
This means that the government was spending an average of €109.7 million per day, or nearly €4.6 million per hour, throughout December.
Illusion of Stability Before the Holidays
On January 8, shortly after Orthodox Christmas, most domestic media reported Finance Ministry data claiming that Serbia’s public finances were “stable” and that the deficit was 114.4 billion dinars lower than planned. The ministry highlighted that the November deficit alone was only two billion dinars, reinforcing the perception of fiscal discipline.
However, December figures—already known to the authorities at the time—were not disclosed, significantly distorting the overall picture of the state budget.
December Deficits Growing Year After Year
Data from previous years show a recurring pattern of sharp year-end spending:
- 2022: December deficit – 154.2 billion dinars
- 2023: December deficit – 132.2 billion dinars
- 2024: December deficit – 141.1 billion dinars
- 2025: December deficit – 191.2 billion dinars
In each case, December spending exceeded the combined deficit of the previous 11 months.
Government Spent More Than It Earned Every Hour
In December 2025, Serbia’s budget recorded an average hourly deficit of nearly €2.2 million, including weekends. By comparison, the government spent 2.8 times more per hour than the total cost of building a new kindergarten with 180 places in Aleksandrovac, inaugurated in mid-2025.
Continuity at the Finance Ministry
A notable political constant throughout this period is Finance Minister Siniša Mali, who has remained in office across all Serbian governments since 2018, making him the longest-serving minister in the same portfolio during the SNS era.
Analysts note that this continuity reflects President Aleksandar Vučić’s strong confidence in Mali, despite recurring end-of-year fiscal shocks that undermine official claims of budgetary discipline.
Worse Than Pandemic Spending Peaks
Despite the scale of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, when Serbia’s annual deficit reached a record €3.9 billion, no single month during the pandemic matched December 2025’s spending levels. At the height of pandemic aid measures, the largest monthly deficit was just over €1 billion.
Election Year Risks Ahead
With 2026 widely viewed as a potential election year, economists warn that budget pressures could intensify further, especially amid large infrastructure projects linked to EXPO 2027 and potential pre-election spending aimed at boosting voter support.
The 2026 budget already projects a deficit of €2.55 billion, and analysts caution that new records may yet be set, continuing a pattern in which apparent fiscal stability during most of the year is undone by massive year-end spending.
