Iran is reportedly preparing for a potential US military strike after the United States deployed key assets, including an aircraft carrier and strategic bombers, to the Middle East. President Donald Trump has threatened action in response to Iran’s brutal suppression of anti-government protests.
Experts say that Iran’s conventional air defenses are weak, leaving the country “practically defenseless” against a targeted airstrike. Michael Horowitz, an independent defense analyst based in Israel, noted:
“Iran may be practically undefended in terms of air capabilities, but it still possesses a large arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and attack drones that could strike US bases and commercial assets in the region.”
Despite previous Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production facilities last June, Iran successfully launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, demonstrating its retaliatory capability. Iran also has the ability to disrupt oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, giving Tehran leverage over global markets even without direct military engagement.
US Options and Risks
While Trump has reportedly stepped back from immediate action, the US is exploring limited strikes targeting symbolic sites, key leaders, or extended air campaigns. Analysts warn that even a limited strike could provoke widespread retaliation, destabilizing the entire Middle East.
Experts emphasize that:
- Airstrikes alone will not topple the Iranian regime; a sustained campaign would be required alongside internal political fractures.
- Iran’s conventional forces could be damaged but not defeated, as they can disperse, hide, and continue internal repression.
- Economic disruption via the Strait of Hormuz could allow Iran to retaliate without direct engagement, potentially creating global crises.
Horowitz concluded:
“Air power can punish and paralyze, but without political disruption inside Iran, there is no realistic path to collapse the regime or its security forces.”
