U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are discussing a goal for Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement by March, according to sources familiar with the talks.
Under the framework being discussed, any peace agreement would be subject to a referendum in Ukraine, which could be held at the same time as national elections.
U.S. officials have suggested that this process be completed as quickly as possible, before Washington’s political focus shifts toward the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November.
Elections and Referendum: Legal and Logistical Obstacles
Sources close to the negotiations said the possibility of holding elections and a referendum in May has been discussed. However, Ukrainian election authorities warn that organizing such a process would require around six months, legal changes, and significant costs, due to the state of emergency in the country.
Ukraine is also seeking a ceasefire during the election campaign, citing concerns about potential violations by Russia.
Key Issues Remain Unresolved
According to sources, the lack of progress on territorial issues—especially the Donbas region—remains the main obstacle to a short-term agreement. Russia is demanding full control over Donbas, a condition Kyiv considers unacceptable.
The future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe and currently located in Russian-occupied territory, also remains unresolved.
Skepticism Over a Rapid Peace
While Ukraine has sent high-level political negotiators, the Russian delegation is largely composed of military figures. Analysts assess that even if an agreement is reached, Ukrainian voters may reject any territorial concessions in a referendum.
Currently, Russia controls around 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and parts of Donbas.
