Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is facing increasing political and diplomatic pressure as Serbia struggles to balance relations with the United States, the European Union, and other global powers, according to an opinion analysis by EU law expert Vladimir Medović.
Medović argues that Serbia’s long-standing foreign policy strategy is becoming increasingly unsustainable, suggesting that the country can no longer effectively maintain its multi-directional diplomatic balancing act.
Growing Tensions Between Serbia, the U.S., and the EU
According to the analysis, relations between Serbia and the United States remain strained due to Belgrade’s close ties with Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, and previously Venezuela. Washington is reportedly particularly concerned about Serbia’s cooperation with Chinese technology giant Huawei, which conflicts with commitments outlined in the 2020 Washington Agreement.
Medović highlights that an invitation extended by U.S. officials encouraging Serbia to move away from the European Union path initially appeared favorable to Vučić. However, subsequent developments revealed ongoing distrust between Washington and Belgrade, including U.S. diplomatic engagement with Kosovo’s leadership, which reportedly caused discomfort within Serbian political circles.
European Union Path Faces Internal Political Obstacles
While Serbia officially maintains its EU membership ambitions, the analysis states that closer integration with the EU would require major reforms, including:
- Strengthening media freedom
- Ensuring judicial independence
- Guaranteeing free and fair elections
Medović claims that such reforms could directly threaten Vučić’s hold on power, suggesting that recent judicial law amendments criticized by the European Commission indicate a shift away from European integration priorities.
Economic Reality Anchors Serbia to Europe
Despite political tensions, the analysis stresses that Serbia remains economically dependent on the European Union. The EU and its member states are described as:
- Serbia’s largest donor of financial assistance
- Its most important trade partner
- The biggest source of foreign investment and employment opportunities
Medović warns that any weakening or collapse of the EU would have severe economic and political consequences for Serbia, given the country’s integration into the European economic framework through the Stabilization and Association Agreement.
Geopolitical Choices Narrowing
The analysis compares Serbia’s current dilemma to previous debates about choosing between the EU and BRICS, noting that the country now faces a strategic choice between alignment with the U.S. or the EU.
From a political values perspective, Medović suggests that Serbia’s current leadership may find ideological compatibility with U.S. policies under former President Donald Trump, particularly regarding skepticism toward liberal democratic institutions. He also points to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as a close political ally who supports similar governance models.
However, the author emphasizes that geographic, economic, and political realities limit Serbia’s ability to pivot fully toward Washington or alternative global alliances.
Limited Strategic Alternatives
The analysis concludes that Serbia’s options are narrowing significantly, arguing that strained relations with both the U.S. and the EU leave Belgrade with few viable geopolitical alternatives. Medović warns that relying heavily on Russia could result in political and economic dependence without offering sustainable long-term benefits.
He ultimately portrays Serbia’s foreign policy situation as increasingly fragile, with mounting uncertainty about the country’s strategic direction.
