American Balkan expert Daniel Serwer has warned that any attempt to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina would likely occur through violence and would strongly benefit Russia, potentially destabilizing the region and creating a new crisis front for Western countries.
Partition Could Only Happen Through Violence
Speaking on the program Pressing on N1, the Johns Hopkins University professor stated that the risk of Bosnia’s disintegration has existed since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement. However, he emphasized that a peaceful partition is not realistic.
“There is no possibility of a peaceful division of Bosnia and Herzegovina – only a violent one,” Serwer said.
Russia Would Gain Strategic Advantage
Serwer stressed that a violent breakup of Bosnia would serve Russia’s strategic interests, undermining Western influence in the Balkans.
“Such a situation would be extremely favorable for Russia. It would destroy what the United States has achieved in the Balkans, destabilize the entire region, and create a major challenge for NATO,” he explained.
He added that Russia would not need to deploy troops in the Balkans to benefit, noting that the creation of a new conflict zone would already strain Western security resources.
Potential Armed Resistance to Secession
According to Serwer, any attempt by Republika Srpska to secede would likely trigger armed resistance.
“This is not only about Bosnian patriotism but about preventing deaths and destruction,” he stated, warning that a conflict in Bosnia could involve multiple armed factions.
Dodik Should Be Taken Seriously
Serwer emphasized that Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik must be taken seriously, pointing to his repeated promises of secession and his political ties with Russia.
“Dodik is a democratically elected politician and should be taken seriously when he promises separation,” Serwer said.
Skepticism Over International Recognition
Serwer expressed doubt regarding claims that 15 countries would recognize an independent Republika Srpska. He said it is unlikely that the United States would support such recognition, stressing that American policy remains focused on Bosnia’s democratization and European integration.
He also noted that even recognition by 15 countries would not provide full international legitimacy, referencing Kosovo, which has been recognized by more than 100 states but still lacks universal recognition.
Additionally, Serwer questioned whether countries such as Israel or Russia would formally recognize Republika Srpska, highlighting potential conflicts with their existing foreign policies, particularly regarding Palestine and Ukraine.
Warning of Serious Regional Destabilization
Serwer concluded by reiterating that any attempt to partition Bosnia would almost certainly lead to violence and serious regional instability, a scenario he believes would directly serve Russia’s geopolitical interests.
