Public opinion polling has become increasingly rare in Serbia during the 2026 election year, raising questions about transparency, political influence, and the strength of emerging opposition movements, particularly the student-led electoral list reportedly challenging the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Political Tensions and Election Uncertainty Limit Polling Transparency
Analysts and experts highlight that election-related fraud allegations, political tensions, and a highly polarized society are among the main reasons why reliable polling data is seldom published. Additional uncertainty stems from unresolved questions about which political actors will participate in the elections and growing difficulties faced by independent polling agencies.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who has remained in power for 14 years, is widely believed to rely heavily on internal polling. Despite consistent electoral victories, observers have frequently raised concerns about media control and misuse of state resources, factors that have influenced Serbia’s political environment.
While some reports suggest declining public support for Vučić, especially following student-led protests that have gained public backing over the past year, precise data remains largely unavailable. Polling results are often released only through pro-government channels or remain anonymous.
Claims That the Student List Is Gaining Momentum
Several independent political analyses claim that the student electoral list could outperform the ruling SNS, potentially even without broader opposition alliances.
A widely cited survey conducted by Sprint Insight in late summer 2025 reportedly showed the student list leading the ruling party by approximately 10 percentage points. Additionally, a survey conducted by the civic organization CRTA indicated that around 60 percent of citizens support holding early parliamentary elections, reflecting dissatisfaction with current governance.
Meanwhile, political analyst Đorđe Vukadinović from the New Serbian Political Thought research group has argued that the ruling establishment has stabilized its position, suggesting that election outcomes may ultimately depend on voter turnout and campaign strategies.
President Vučić has dismissed such polling claims, stating publicly that “only fools boast about public opinion research.”
Independent Polling Agencies Face Pressure and Credibility Risks
Tamara Bajčić, Executive Director of the research organization Demostat, stated that public opinion surveys in Serbia often serve political marketing and propaganda purposes, rather than purely scientific or analytical goals.
She emphasized that intense social tensions and emotional polarization make conducting accurate polling especially difficult. According to Bajčić, government-aligned agencies historically dominated the publication of electoral ratings, often releasing results through pro-government media outlets.
Independent researchers, she noted, face financial barriers, political stigmatization, and indirect market censorship, which limit their ability to conduct and publish surveys.
Bajčić also warned that in conditions where elections are widely perceived as irregular, polling predictions risk being used for short-term political propaganda, creating reputational risks for independent agencies.
Analysts Suggest Authorities Withhold Poll Results
Journalist Nedim Sejdinović believes the government likely conducts regular internal polling but avoids publishing results due to potentially unfavorable findings.
According to him, public disclosure of declining support for the SNS could accelerate voter shifts, as some citizens continue supporting the ruling party largely due to perceptions of its political dominance.
Sejdinović noted that current polling trends remain uncertain because the structure of the student list is still undefined, and the opposition’s election strategy, including potential coalition formations, remains unclear.
He warned that while public dissatisfaction with the ruling party appears significant, opposition divisions or strategic errors could reduce voter turnout or fragment anti-government support, potentially benefiting pro-government candidates.
Uncertain Electoral Landscape
Observers agree that Serbia’s 2026 election cycle remains highly unpredictable, with multiple political variables still unresolved. The absence of consistent and transparent polling data has contributed to speculation about the true balance of political power, particularly as new political movements attempt to mobilize voters.
