With the conclusion of the European elections, there is increasing speculation about who will succeed Miroslav Lajčák as the special envoy for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Additionally, after the U.S. elections, the successor to Gabriel Escobar, the U.S. special envoy for the Western Balkans, will be on the agenda. Analysts expect experienced diplomats who are well-acquainted with the region and the character of local politicians. The dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has been almost non-existent in recent years, as confirmed by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, making the selection of the new mediator in Brussels crucial.
Change in Dialogue
Aleksandar Popov, director of the Center for Regionalism, believes Brussels will follow previous logic when selecting a new special envoy for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. “It should be someone who knows the problems in the region well, and therefore, I think this is the advantage Pahor has over diplomats from Northern Europe. I am not sure how well Havista and Sorensa know the conditions in the region, but also the nature of the politicians here, because you need to know those you are negotiating with well,” Popov told “Blic.” According to him, Richard Holbrooke, the former American diplomat and creator of the Dayton Agreement, knew this very well in the 1990s. “However, the situation is different now. Behind Holbrooke stood the most powerful country in the world, the USA, whereas today, there is a colorful membership in the EU because five member states have not recognized Kosovo’s independence,” Popov assesses.
The New Lajčák
Popov believes that Pahor is the most likely candidate to succeed Lajčák. “Much will depend on the respect the new diplomat commands in Belgrade and Pristina, as well as on experience. Pahor did not do very well when he once asked officials in Sarajevo if Bosnia and Herzegovina could disband peacefully after a non-paper appeared suggesting the creation of a Greater Croatia, Greater Serbia, and Greater Albania. Of course, at that time, he only received a positive response from Milorad Dodik,” recalls Popov. Borut Pahor is a Slovenian politician who served as the President of Slovenia from 2012 to 2022 after serving as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012. Pahor has been an active member and even held the position of party chairman.
Replacing Borrell
Pahor should personally submit a request for the position of EU special envoy for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina to the European External Action Service, led by Spanish socialist Josep Borrell. Regarding the new head of EU diplomacy, Kaja Kallas from Estonia is most frequently mentioned as Borrell’s successor. “We will see, I think Borrell turned out to be a weak personality, lacking the firmness required for this position. The question is whether his successor will be a strong enough personality, as I believe Ursula von der Leyen will continue to lead as President of the European Commission,” says Popov.
Successor to Escobar
The successor to Gabriel Escobar, the U.S. special envoy for the Western Balkans, will have to wait longer since the U.S. presidential elections are scheduled for November. Popov believes the role of the new American special envoy for the Western Balkans will depend on who wins those elections. Richard Grenell could return to the post of U.S. special envoy for the Western Balkans if Trump wins the U.S. elections. “If Joe Biden wins, the envoy, like Escobar before, will harmonize his views and actions with the EU. It may be a higher-ranking diplomat from the State Department. Otherwise, if Donald Trump becomes president again, I think Richard Grenell, who operated more or less alone in relation to the EU, will return to the post of special envoy for the Western Balkans, and the result of that was the Washington Agreement,” concludes Popov.
