The diplomatic clash at the White House between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left their allies abroad stunned. European Union leaders rushed to reaffirm their support for Ukraine, pledging to work together towards lasting peace. This swift shift in U.S. policy comes after years of Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine, raising the question: could Kosovo face a similar fate in its ongoing dispute with Serbia? Some analysts argue not, but they also suggest Kosovo should become “more responsive.”
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States has been the primary supporter of Kyiv, both militarily and diplomatically. But now, three years later, U.S. President Donald Trump sounds more sympathetic towards Russia than Ukraine.
During a meeting at the White House on February 28, Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, had a tense exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, repeatedly interrupting each other.
Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with the lives of millions of people” and “with World War III,” telling him that “he can come back when he’s ready for peace.”
This shift in U.S. policy didn’t start here, but at least two weeks ago. On February 18, Trump commented, “Today I heard: Oh, we weren’t invited. You’ve been there for three years. You should have never started it. You could have made deals.”
With these surprising comments, Trump appeared to blame Ukraine for Russia’s invasion, suggesting that the country could have “made deals” to avoid war.
Ukraine, however, was invaded by its neighbor in February 2022, and the ongoing conflict has become the deadliest in Europe since World War II.
Trump, even in a social media post, used harsh language to describe the Ukrainian president, accusing Zelensky of “refusing to hold elections” and labeling him a “dictator.” According to Trump, Zelensky “needs to act quickly or he will be left without a state.”
Trump appears to be acting on his promise to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. Initially, he held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and just days later, on February 18, U.S. and Russian delegations met in Saudi Arabia to begin talks on the specifics.
This was the first direct contact between the parties since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking a sudden change in U.S. foreign policy.
This shift has caught both Ukraine and the traditional U.S. allies in Europe by surprise, who are currently sidelined in the negotiations. But at the same time, it raises questions for other countries that rely on U.S. support, including Kosovo.
With Serbia refusing to recognize Kosovo’s independence and the dialogue between them stalled for years, could the U.S., under Trump, take a similar approach to the Kosovo issue?
In a letter sent to Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani on the 17th anniversary of Kosovo’s independence on February 17, Trump was quoted as saying that the U.S. “will continue to work with Kosovo to strengthen democratic institutions and promote economic growth.” He also pledged that ties between the two countries would expand.
Alon Ben-Meir, a retired professor of International Relations, states that the Trump administration might favor Serbia – possibly due to closer ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, business interests of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in Serbia, or the influence of Trump’s special envoy for missions, Richard Grenell, with his ongoing criticisms of Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s government.
“But this doesn’t mean that Trump will abandon Kosovo,” says Ben-Meir, because “he knows that to maintain stability in the Balkans, he must strike some kind of balance.”
“And, in this case, the EU is directly involved. It has troops in Kosovo, and he cannot bypass this issue,” says the American professor in an interview with Radio Free Europe’s Expose program.
Richard Caplan, a professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford, says that Kosovo has historically been under pressure from external parties but still had a place at the table.
According to him, Kosovo Albanians might draw parallels with the Ukrainians, but the U.S. has less at stake in the Kosovo-Serbia dispute, which “reduces the chances that Trump would abandon Kosovo as he did with Ukraine.”
“Considering some of Trump’s actions are described as transactional, he might attempt to forge relationships with both Kosovo and Serbia – ones that respond more to U.S. interests than those of the European community or the Western Balkans,” Caplan says.
During his first term as president, from 2017 to 2021, Trump witnessed the signing of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia to normalize economic relations. However, very little of this document was implemented on the ground, though Trump said he was “proud of the two leaders” – then-Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
This year, in the letter he sent to Kosovo’s president for the 17th anniversary of Kosovo’s independence, Trump did not mention the dialogue for normalizing relations between Pristina and Belgrade. Similarly, he did not mention it in the letter he sent to Serbian President Vučić on Serbia’s Statehood Day in February. In both letters, he emphasized the importance of cooperation.
Despite this, Ben-Meir expects Kosovo to face increased pressure from the U.S. to grant more autonomy to the Serbian community – something Serbia has insisted on for years. Failure to do so, he says, would have consequences, including:
“The United States could impose sanctions, may not assist Kosovo economically, and might pressure the EU to prevent Kosovo’s integration into its community.”
“Therefore, the United States can apply considerable pressure if it chooses to. That’s why I believe you cannot ignore what the U.S. wants,” says Ben-Meir.
He adds that Vučić’s ties with Russia could allow him to influence U.S. policy. Meanwhile, organizing a potential meeting between Trump and Putin in Belgrade – which has been discussed before – would further strengthen Serbia’s position.
To counter this, Ben-Meir says that Kosovo must show flexibility without compromising its independence.
“The Association of Serb-majority municipalities should be formed. If you don’t want territorial exchanges, create the Association and cooperate with Serbia because Serbia has a great interest in those municipalities since they are mostly inhabited by Serbs. Therefore, flexibility is needed in this regard,” says Ben-Meir.
Caplan suggests that Trump is still in the second month of his term, and his foreign policy is still taking shape. However, he warns that Trump’s behavior toward Ukraine should serve as a signal for his approach to other unresolved conflicts, and leaders should remain vigilant.
“I’m sure Ukrainians feel they’ve been sold out in many respects. Therefore, it’s reasonable to be concerned that Trump may make compromises on principles when they serve his narrow interests or U.S. interests,” Caplan says.
This apparent approach has already alarmed traditional U.S. allies in Europe. German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz stated that the continent must strengthen its security as soon as possible to “become independent” from the U.S.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU will continue to work with Ukraine “for a just and lasting peace.”
However, unlike them, historical opponents of the U.S. appear more sympathetic to Trump’s behavior and rhetoric.
“If you had told me just three months ago that these would be the words of the American president, I would have laughed out loud,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, commenting on Trump’s statement that “Zelensky is a dictator.”
While further meetings between the U.S. and Russia are anticipated regarding Ukraine, analysts do not expect the Kosovo-Serbia dispute to be high on Trump’s agenda – especially not in the immediate future./RFE
