Balkan States Face Membership Timelines, Iceland Could Join EU in a Year and a Half

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If Icelanders vote to resume EU accession talks in their referendum on August 29, they could potentially surpass Montenegro as the fastest country to join the bloc, according to Iceland’s top diplomat.

Iceland could complete accession negotiations with the European Union within “a year and a half” and become its 28th member, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO.

Iceland will hold a referendum on August 29 to restart negotiations that were halted years ago. A recent Gallup poll showed a narrow split, with 52% in favor and 48% against.

“Sometimes you should not be led by polls, but lead yourself,” said Þorgerður, chair of the pro-EU party Viðreisn.

As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and part of Schengen, Iceland has already implemented many EU laws. This, according to Þorgerður, makes the process of joining the EU “much faster and less complicated,” provided Icelanders vote to resume negotiations.

When asked if Iceland could overtake countries further along in negotiations, such as Montenegro, to become the EU’s 28th member, Þorgerður said “yes”, though she noted that fishing policies would be a major point of discussion.

Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009 during a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 over fishing policy disagreements and changing economic circumstances, officially withdrawing in 2015. Before that, Reykjavik had closed 11 of 33 negotiation chapters—a benchmark Montenegro only recently surpassed. An anonymous EU official told POLITICO last month that negotiations with Reykjavik could take just one year.

Þorgerður warned that even if Icelanders vote “yes” in August, a second referendum would be required once negotiations conclude.

The benefits of EU membership during current geopolitical turbulence are clear, she said. “It’s also very important for our businesses and industries to give them security and protection within the Union.”

Iceland would gain economically and in terms of security, Þorgerður added, noting challenges such as high inflation, high interest rates, and monopolies in the domestic economy. The EU, in turn, would benefit from Iceland’s geostrategic location and resources.

“With the August referendum, we are giving power back to the people,” Þorgerður said.