The ongoing military modernization in the Western Balkans is more than a matter of weapons procurement. It reflects the global struggle for influence between NATO allies and powers such as Russia and China.
Serbia Between East and West
Unlike its neighbors, which rely mainly on Western-made technology, Serbia has maneuvered between Western, Russian, and Chinese suppliers. This mixed approach has long turned the Balkans into a miniature stage of global rivalry, says former Albanian Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu.
“Security today is not only about defense. It also includes infrastructure, technology, politics, economy, and the military. Serbia’s ties with Russia and China are a matter of serious concern,” Mediu told RFE/RL’s Expose.
NATO Alignment vs. Diverging Strategies
Defense consultant Nikola Lunić in Belgrade highlighted that true NATO aspirants must ensure interoperability in procurement. However, this coordination often fails in the region due to unfinished historical disputes and nationalist narratives.
Currently:
- NATO members: Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia
- Aspirants: Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Neutral but engaged: Serbia (via NATO’s Partnership for Peace program)
Kosovo’s Defense Ministry confirmed all weapons purchased in the last four years meet NATO standards, primarily from the US, Turkey, and Germany. This year, the Kosovo Security Force received RQ-20 Puma LE drones from the US and signed a deal with Turkey to build its first ammunition factory within two years.
Serbia’s Military Spending Raises Red Flags
Serbia, however, stands apart. Despite participating in NATO’s Partnership for Peace, Belgrade has deepened ties with China and Russia. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Serbia increasingly turned to China, purchasing combat drones and missile systems.
In 2024 alone, Serbia allocated $2.2 billion for defense—five times more than NATO member Albania. According to SIPRI, Serbia has been the top military spender in the Western Balkans over the last five years.
Mediu warned: “Serbia, with its policies in Bosnia and especially in Kosovo, has never abandoned territorial claims. The narrative mirrors Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine.”
NATO’s Strategic Concerns
Former NATO official Jamie Shea stressed that the alliance must monitor Balkan developments closely, especially given Serbia’s growing ties with China.
“NATO should appoint a special envoy for the region, working alongside EU and US representatives,” Shea suggested.
Analysts warn Serbia’s balancing act between East and West could backfire. In case of a wider geopolitical crisis, its proclaimed neutrality may no longer be accepted, leaving Serbia isolated.
Kosovo’s Path and Regional Cooperation
For Kosovo, Serbia remains the main security threat. The 2023 Banjska attack, where armed Serb groups killed a Kosovar police officer, highlighted ongoing risks. Experts argue that Kosovo’s NATO membership and deeper cooperation with the US and QUINT states would provide the strongest security guarantees.
Mediu urged regional countries to create joint defense capacities, drawing parallels with the Baltic states. The recent Kosovo-Albania-Croatia defense initiative could evolve into a stronger framework if supported by NATO.
Conclusion
As NATO drones land in Kosovo and Serbia seeks missiles from China, the Western Balkans stand at a crossroads. For NATO, the key lesson is clear, Shea emphasized, citing Napoleon:
“You may be forgiven for losing a battle, but never for being caught unprepared.”
