American Balkans expert Daniel Serwer has stated that the current U.S. administration is likely to leave the leadership of the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue to Brussels, even though Washington and the EU are on different trajectories in other matters. He also noted that while the administration has strongly supported Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, there have been no clear indications of its stance on Kosovo.
“At the moment, the region is on autopilot. Apart from the strong support given to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty, I have not seen any indications regarding the U.S. policy towards Kosovo,” Serwer said.
U.S. Role in the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue
The potential U.S. involvement in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue has been discussed in light of former President Donald Trump’s first term, during which he pushed for an economic agreement between the two sides. However, Serwer believes Washington will now allow Brussels to take the lead.
“I think this administration wants Brussels to take charge of the dialogue. While the U.S. and the EU are on different paths today, I have yet to see any indication of this divergence when it comes to the dialogue,” he added.
Recently, Al Jazeera reported that the U.S. is expected to appoint Colleen Hyland as Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Western Balkans, replacing Alexander Kasanof. Hyland, a seasoned diplomat, previously served as Deputy Ambassador to Kosovo from 2016 to 2019.
Serwer believes Hyland’s appointment does not signal a clear shift in U.S. policy. “She is highly qualified and a professional, but she will follow the administration’s direction, which remains unclear,” he noted.
Uncertainty Over Kosovo’s Path to International Recognition
During Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021), Kosovo was approached primarily through economic agreements, including the Washington Agreement signed on February 4, 2020, under the mediation of Richard Grenell. While it was promoted as a diplomatic success, the focus was largely economic rather than political.
The EU-mediated Kosovo-Serbia dialogue continues to be seen as key to avoiding conflict and normalizing relations. However, the 2023 Ohrid Agreement remains unimplemented, raising doubts about the process’s effectiveness.
Western officials have repeatedly warned that without compromise between Serbia and Kosovo, the situation could remain frozen, with the risk of escalating tensions in northern Kosovo. Meanwhile, Kosovo continues to seek stronger international support for membership in organizations such as the Council of Europe and NATO’s Partnership for Peace. However, U.S. officials have emphasized that normalization with Serbia is crucial for advancing Kosovo’s international standing.
