The European Commission is preparing a new approach to EU enlargement that could include clearer roadmaps toward membership for the most advanced candidate countries, while offering other candidates forms of “gradual integration” before full accession.
According to European Western Balkans, two key elements of Brussels’ preparations for the next enlargement round are a review of EU decision-making procedures and new roadmaps setting out clearer timelines for future members.
The European Commission is expected to present proposals on October 6 for significant changes to the way the EU makes decisions, without reopening the bloc’s treaties. The package is also expected to include new safeguards aimed at preventing democratic and rule-of-law backsliding in future member states.
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Commission could also outline indicative timelines for completing accession negotiations with the most advanced candidates — Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova — through new “roadmaps” expected later this month.
For Serbia and other candidates that are further behind in the accession process, Brussels is considering different forms of “gradual integration.”
Possible Restrictions on New Members’ Veto Powers
One of the proposals under discussion would allow the EU to temporarily limit the ability of newly admitted member states to block decisions in areas where unanimity is required.
According to people familiar with the proposal, such an arrangement could be included in a declaration accompanying an accession treaty. The stated objective would not be to create permanently different rights for new members, but to allow them to become gradually integrated into the EU’s decision-making system.
Financial Safeguards Over Rule-of-Law Backsliding
The proposed package could also introduce a new financial safeguard allowing the European Commission, for a limited period, to propose measures including the suspension of EU funding if clear deficiencies in the rule of law in a new member state threaten the sound management of the EU budget or its financial interests.
The mechanism would be intended to strengthen the EU’s ability to protect its funds if a newly admitted member subsequently experiences democratic or rule-of-law backsliding.
The proposal would also give the EU additional possibilities to suspend a member state’s voting rights in cases involving particularly serious breaches of the Union’s fundamental values.
Under the proposed system, the Council could act on a Commission recommendation and adopt such a measure by qualified majority for a limited period.
This would differ from the existing Article 7 procedure, where unanimity requirements have made comparable action difficult.
New member states would also reportedly be required to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office before accession.
Moving Away From Unanimity
The Commission is also expected to encourage greater use of qualified-majority voting wherever existing treaties allow it, reducing the EU’s reliance on unanimity.
This could have implications for areas including foreign policy, defence and sanctions, as well as enlargement.
One possible route would be the use of the EU’s so-called passerelle clauses, which allow member states to change decision-making procedures in certain areas without formally amending the treaties.
Countries concerned about being outvoted would retain safeguards. A proposed “emergency brake” could allow particularly sensitive issues to be referred to EU leaders, while another mechanism could require efforts to reach an acceptable compromise when a significant group of member states risks being outvoted.
Preparing EU Institutions for Further Enlargement
The Commission’s plans would also address the functioning of EU institutions as the number of member states grows.
One proposal would reduce the number of European Commissioners to two-thirds of the number of member states.
The Council would establish a rotation system designed to reflect the EU’s demographic and geographic diversity, while the European Parliament would also need to adjust its composition as the Union expands.
Roadmaps for Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova
Internal EU reform is only one part of the enlargement package.
The European Commission is expected to present new accession “roadmaps” on October 28 as part of its enlargement package.
The aim would be to give the leading candidate countries greater predictability and a clearer step-by-step path toward membership, potentially including indicative timelines for completing the negotiating chapters.
“These roadmaps will identify reforms and upcoming important milestones, as well as indicate the sequencing needed for the successful completion of accession negotiations,” according to the draft Commission document cited in the report.
The Commission argues that such roadmaps would provide candidate countries, member states and EU institutions with a clearer framework for planning the next stages of accession while maintaining the principle that progress toward membership remains merit-based.
Gradual Integration for Candidates Further From Membership
At the same time, the Commission is seeking to expand the use of gradual integration, while making clear that this approach is not intended as an alternative to full membership for Montenegro and Albania.
“For Montenegro and Albania, which are already very advanced in the accession process, the priority remains the successful completion of accession negotiations,” the draft reportedly states.
For other candidates, gradual integration would provide a more immediate way to move closer to the EU by accelerating economic convergence, deepening political cooperation and delivering concrete benefits while reforms continue.
The approach would vary according to the country and sector rather than follow a single model.
Serbia, Ukraine and Moldova, for example, have particular interests in arrangements that could facilitate access to the EU single market for industrial products, while other candidate countries have different immediate priorities.
The Commission therefore argues that gradual integration should remain flexible enough to reflect different starting points, reform trajectories and political priorities.
A New Enlargement Timetable
If the proposals are confirmed, this would be the first time in nearly a decade that the European Commission has offered indicative timelines for completing accession negotiations with the most advanced candidate countries.
The last such initiative came in February 2018, when the Commission set out steps and reforms aimed at putting Serbia and Montenegro in a position to join the EU by 2025.
Member states largely did not follow the Commission’s enlargement strategy or its indicative timetable.
Since then, the enlargement landscape has changed significantly. Serbia has moved toward the back of the group of negotiating candidates, while the political climate within the EU has shifted in favor of enlargement.
The Commission now considers Montenegro and Albania to have a realistic prospect of EU membership by the end of the decade.
Discussions among EU leaders at their October 15 summit, and again in December, are expected to provide an initial indication of how far member states are prepared to go — both in reforming the Union itself and in taking concrete steps toward admitting new members.
