Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision on March 3 to temporarily suspend military funding for Ukraine, European diplomats in Brussels are calling this “Europe’s moment.” However, beyond rhetoric, the key question remains: Does Europe have the political will to fully compensate for the loss of U.S. military spending on Ukraine?
So far, there is no clear answer. NATO is awaiting more details from Washington before making any official statements. Alliance diplomats told Radio Free Europe that they are trying to determine whether European allies can still purchase American weapons and transfer them to Ukraine. One diplomat noted that “Europe simply does not have enough supplies at the moment, but if it can continue using American arms and ammunition, then it might manage.”
Is the EU Ready to Fill the Gap?
When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the media on March 4 to present proposals for increased EU defense spending and military aid to Ukraine, she avoided mentioning the U.S. decision. Ahead of a crucial EU summit on March 6, von der Leyen warned member states in a letter obtained by Radio Free Europe that Europe faces an “unprecedented and present danger.”
Despite this, her proposals and the draft conclusions of the summit lack concrete commitments to directly support Ukraine, aside from the already pledged €30 billion in budgetary assistance for Kyiv in 2025. However, an additional €30 billion would be needed this year if the U.S. withdraws completely.
EU’s Defense Strategy: Strengthening Itself First?
Von der Leyen’s rearmament initiative mainly focuses on bolstering the EU’s own defense, rather than direct aid for Ukraine. Her plan includes a €150 billion loan for member states to enhance air defense and drone arsenals, greater flexibility in EU spending rules for defense budgets, and the possibility of redirecting EU funds from poorer regions to military projects—if member states agree.
The proposed measures could generate up to €800 billion in defense spending. However, the crucial question remains: Is the EU aiming to secure itself, or to ensure Ukraine can withstand Russian aggression?
Alternative Funding for Ukraine Stalls
One potential solution, suggested by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, was to use revenues from frozen Russian assets and voluntary contributions from EU member states based on national incomes to raise the necessary €30 billion for Ukraine. However, this plan is now on hold. Some EU countries were reluctant to commit such a large sum, while Hungary reportedly threatened to veto any summit text that challenges U.S. efforts to negotiate peace with Moscow.
As the EU grapples with its next move, Ukraine’s fate remains uncertain. Despite calls for this to be “Europe’s moment,” concrete action to replace U.S. aid is still lacking—raising concerns that Ukraine may not be part of the equation at all.
