Ceuta remains on high alert amid concerns over a possible new attempt by migrants to cross into the Spanish enclave, while the fate of thousands of unaccompanied minors and sub-Saharan Africans left behind after the latest migration crisis is creating a growing political challenge for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
At the enclave’s air-conditioned border crossings, routine controls continue with little disruption. Tourists present their documents and face only minor delays, while the Spanish Civil Guard maintains a visible security presence.
The situation is markedly different at Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s two enclaves in North Africa, where authorities remain uncertain whether another mass border crossing is being planned.
Calls for mobilisation continued to circulate on Facebook, TikTok and WhatsApp, although Spanish investigators have yet to determine whether the messages are merely the work of individuals seeking attention or whether they are linked to preparations for another organised attempt.
Authorities have reportedly traced some of the accounts to telephone numbers from Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, the United States and Senegal. Meanwhile, a survey cited by Spanish media found that 47% of Spaniards consider it plausible that the previous wave involving tens of thousands of Moroccan nationals was coordinated by Morocco.
Spanish security forces deployed to Ceuta have remained in place as the state of alert continues.
The latest crisis has also left Madrid facing two unresolved humanitarian and political problems: unaccompanied minors and sub-Saharan migrants who remain in the enclave.
Most of the estimated 70,000–80,000 Moroccans who arrived in Ceuta during the previous surge reportedly returned after discovering that social-media claims about easy access and visas were false.
The minors, however, remain a major challenge. Spanish authorities have registered around 1,340 unaccompanied minors and are working to identify and locate their families in Morocco. Local authorities say the enclave has only around 100 available places for children, forcing virtually every child-support institution in Ceuta to become involved.
The Ceuta government wants the minors to be transferred to other Spanish autonomous communities, but several right-wing regional governments have opposed the proposal.
For Sánchez, the issue has become a politically sensitive balancing act. The relocation of several hundred young migrants could provide additional momentum to Spain’s right-wing opposition and expose divisions within the country over migration policy.
It would also challenge the principle that migrants arriving in Ceuta should remain there, while relocating the minors to mainland Spain would effectively bring them into the Schengen area, albeit without granting them unrestricted freedom of movement.
A survey commissioned by El Mundo underlines the political difficulty facing the Socialist government. According to the poll, 46% of voters oppose relocating migrants, while only 30% support the measure to some degree.
The political dispute is unfolding against a worsening humanitarian situation. Around 1,000 minors are reportedly living in overcrowded and inadequate conditions, with authorities under pressure to identify their families and determine longer-term solutions.
The second major challenge concerns sub-Saharan Africans who remain in Ceuta. Many lack documentation allowing them to remain legally either in Morocco or in the Spanish enclave.
Morocco normally functions as a key external barrier for the European Union, restricting migration from sub-Saharan Africa before migrants can reach European territory. According to Ceuta’s mayor, as many as 11,000 sub-Saharan migrants could remain in the enclave, although some had arrived before the latest crisis.
Many have established makeshift camps in wooded areas, while around 1,500 of the most visible migrants are reportedly staying on a beach, where they have built shelters, lit fires and organised themselves into groups to keep the coastline clean.
They now face asylum procedures that could take years, while their eventual relocation within Spain remains likely.
Meanwhile, signs of renewed cooperation between Madrid and Rabat are emerging.
If the theory that the July 30 migration surge represented retaliation by Morocco over Madrid’s rapprochement with Algeria and the dispute surrounding Western Sahara is correct, the latest developments may indicate that Rabat believes it has achieved its political objective.
A Moroccan court recently sentenced seven taxi drivers accused of transporting would-be migrants toward Ceuta. Each received six months in prison and a fine of around $1,000.
The joint taxi union protested against what it described as a “harsh and unjust” punishment of workers who were simply carrying out their jobs.
Nevertheless, the convictions appear to have sent a broader message: Morocco’s barrier against irregular departures toward Europe is being restored.
The diplomatic climate could also be influenced by growing controversy surrounding the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which will be jointly hosted by Spain, Portugal and Morocco.
Some political voices in Spain have begun questioning whether cooperation with Morocco was a mistake, while Rabat is closely following the debate.
For Sánchez, however, the immediate challenge is more urgent: preventing another border crisis while finding a workable solution for thousands of migrants and unaccompanied minors already stranded in Ceuta.
