Chileans are voting on Sunday to elect a new president, in a race dominated by public concerns over rising crime and migration. Analysts predict the election is likely to go to a runoff in December, as the contest tightens between left-wing and far-right candidates.
Tight Race Between Government Ally and Far-Right Challenger
With eight candidates vying for the presidency, the battle for Palacio de La Moneda has narrowed to a clash between a government coalition candidate and the ultraconservative opposition.
The latest Radar Electoral poll indicates a high-stakes runoff on 14 December between the two front-runners:
- Jeannette Jara, 51, of the Communist Party and former minister in President Gabriel Boric’s government, leads with roughly 28% of intended votes.
- José Antonio Kast, founder of the Republican Party and 2021 runoff loser to Boric, holds around 20%.
The traditional right-wing remains fragmented, with two other prominent figures vying for a runoff spot:
- Johannes Kaiser, of the Libertarian National Party, has surged to 15%.
- Evelyn Matthei, veteran center-right politician of Chile Vamos, follows closely at 14%.
Crime and Violence Dominate the Campaign
Although Chile remains one of Latin America’s safest countries, perceptions of insecurity have shaped the electoral debate.
An Ipsos survey in October revealed that nearly two-thirds of Chilean adults (63%) identify crime and violence as their main concern. While the homicide rate is globally low—6 per 100,000 inhabitants—it has significantly affected public sentiment and confidence.
Migration as a Campaign Issue
Candidates have also focused on irregular migration, highlighting the doubling of Chile’s migrant population over the last seven years, now reaching 8.8% of the 20 million population, largely from Venezuela.
Far-right candidates have explicitly linked undocumented migrants to increased criminal activity, making migration a key factor in the political debate.
