The highly anticipated visit of Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić, to Moscow has raised concerns about the potential consequences for Serbia’s European path.
Vučić confirmed his participation in the May 9 Victory Day parade against fascism in early March after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If Vučić travels to Moscow, where he would meet Putin for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this could have serious repercussions on Serbia’s EU integration process, according to retired diplomat Srećko Gjukić.
“This may be beneficial for the Serbian regime, but it is certainly not beneficial for Serbia’s European path, nor for the European Union as a powerful economic and political entity on the international stage, and certainly not for other candidate countries for EU membership,” explained Gjukić.
What does Brussels say?
Serbia has been negotiating for EU membership since 2014. However, it has not aligned with the EU sanctions against Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine, and authorities in Belgrade have continued relations with Moscow even after 2022, despite warnings from Brussels.
The latest warning came from European Commissioner for Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, who visited Belgrade at the end of April. In a media conference on April 29, he stated that “it is up to Serbia’s president whether to go to Moscow,” but warned that if Vučić does go, it would be “much harder to help Serbia remain strongly on the European path.”
“Going to Moscow and celebrating with Putin or his army, who are killing people in Ukraine, is deeply incompatible with European values and the 2022 EU Council decision that member states should not take actions that would legitimize Putin and Russia,” said Várhelyi.
The U.S. State Department has yet to comment on Vučić’s planned visit to Moscow.
What’s at Risk?
After years of balancing between the West and the East, Serbia’s European path has become compromised, according to former diplomat Gjukić. He stated that if Vučić travels to Moscow, “certain actions” should be expected from Brussels.
“It is possible that from the rich arsenal the EU has against Serbia – including financial aid, donations, political support, and the visa-free regime – all or part of these could be reviewed and put into question,” said Gjukić.
The European Union is Serbia’s most important trade partner. Most of Serbia’s foreign direct investments come from EU countries.
Gjukić added that Serbia’s proximity to Russia not only jeopardizes its EU accession but also negatively impacts other candidate countries.
Who is Vučić sending a message to?
Jelica Kurjak, former Serbian ambassador to Moscow, believes that Vučić’s announcement of his visit to Moscow is more of a message to the EU than to Putin.
“He probably thinks that by doing this, he will show the EU that Serbia is not dependent on them, that it has Russia behind it, and thus tries to strengthen his image to exert pressure,” said Kurjak.
She pointed out that there is no other justifiable reason. She also mentioned criticism from the EU authorities regarding prolonged student protests in Serbia, demanding accountability for the deaths of 16 people from the collapse of a concrete shelter at a train station in Novi Sad.
Regarding negotiations for the NIS company and Russian natural gas supplies, Kurjak stated that there is no need for a face-to-face meeting between Vučić and Putin.
“In this specific case with NIS, nothing depends on Russia. America has imposed sanctions on the company that bought ours. Therefore, America will decide when and what will happen,” Kurjak emphasized.
Who has confirmed participation in Moscow?
Among European leaders, only Vučić and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a close ally of the Kremlin, have confirmed their participation in Moscow. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska, has also announced his visit. Dodik has met Putin several times since the beginning of the Russian aggression, most recently on April 1.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be in Russia from May 7 to 9 for an official visit, which includes bilateral meetings and agreements.
According to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, the participation in the May 9 parade has been confirmed by the Presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Brazil, as well as representatives from Congo and Burkina Faso.
Where does Serbia stand on its EU path?
Since December 2021, Serbia has not opened any new negotiation chapters with the EU. Opening a new chapter requires full consensus from all EU member states.
Since 2014, when the negotiations officially began, Brussels has consistently pointed out relations with Kosovo as the main obstacle. The EU-mediated dialogue has stalled.
The latest European Commission report on Serbia lists serious issues such as the rule of law, widespread corruption, state control over media, government influence over the judiciary, lack of accountability for 1990s war crimes, and the glorification of war criminals. It also highlights Serbia’s misalignment with the EU’s foreign policy.
During her visit to Belgrade, Commissioner Várhelyi stressed the need for reforms in justice, anti-corruption, media freedom, and electoral process improvements.
“Work with us on reforms so that your EU membership can be possible,” Várhelyi stated after meeting with Serbian Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić, on April 29.
Serbia is part of the EU’s Western Balkans Growth Plan, which includes a six billion euro fund. However, due to the lack of progress in the dialogue with Kosovo, neither Serbia nor Kosovo has yet benefited from the first phase of this plan, which involves pre-financing.
