The right-wing extremist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), has stated in its electoral manifesto that it seeks for the country to exit the European Union, following the example of Brexit.
AfD has doubled down on its pledge that, should it come to power, it would withdraw Germany from the EU and end the use of the common European currency, the Euro.
In an electoral manifesto sent to its members before a vote within the party, scheduled for early January, the anti-migration party reiterated its promise made during the European elections this past summer, stating: “We believe that Germany needs to leave the European Union and create a new European community.”
How does AfD envision Europe?
Instead of the EU, AfD proposes a platform called “Europe for the Homeland”—a union of states that would include a common market and “a community of economic and shared interests.” The far-right party also seeks to withdraw Germany from the common monetary zone, which came into effect in 2002, and replace it with a “transfer union.” The party acknowledges that such a “radical change” would not be easy, so it suggests renegotiating relations with all EU member states as well as other European countries.
AfD calls for a referendum on these matters, although Germany’s membership in the EU is constitutionally embedded, making a withdrawal difficult. Even if AfD were to govern in the future and officially sought Germany’s exit from the Union, this move would be unconstitutional, as “Dexit” would require a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Too Late for “Dexit”?
AfD’s plan marks a reinforcement of the party’s stance on the EU issue. In February of this year, the party’s co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, stated that it was “too late” for Germany to exit the EU.
The other co-leader of the party, Alice Weidel, who is also a candidate for Chancellor, defined “Dexit” more as a “Plan B” in an interview with the British Financial Times some time ago.
Economic institutions and the country’s most important industrial associations have condemned this proposal. The German Economic Institute (IW), based in Cologne, has calculated that leaving the EU would cost Germany 690 billion euros (725 billion dollars), with GDP shrinking by 5.6%, leading to 2.5 million fewer jobs. “The damage would be as severe as both the pandemic and the energy crisis combined,” the IW report stated.
The German Association of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (BVMW) was even more critical, describing AfD’s plan as a “kamikaze mission.”
In a statement issued ahead of the European elections in June, the BVMW highlighted all the positive elements that the common currency brings to small and medium-sized businesses: “The monetary union is the perfect complement to the EU’s common market. This market creates significant advantages for selling goods and services in other Union countries. The Euro eliminates uncalculated risks for trading companies.”
“We’ll Benefit from New Deals,” Says AfD
Ronald Gläser, AfD’s spokesperson in Berlin, dismissed these concerns. “Yes, Germany benefits from the EU, but we believe we’d benefit from other deals as well,” he told DW. “And when I hear economists claiming that leaving the EU would lead to an economic catastrophe, I ask: Were they the same ones who said that Europe and the UK would be devastated by Brexit? I remember all the apocalyptic scenarios back then, but in reality, everything went more or less normally.”
A report published by Cambridge Econometrics in January of this year highlighted that Brexit had blocked economic growth and employment in the UK, predicting that the country would lose 3 million jobs by 2035.
Lessons Learned from Brexit
IW’s study relied on the effects of Brexit on UK regions with economies similar to Germany’s. “We could easily face much bigger consequences because we’re more interconnected with the EU than the British. We have the Euro, which means we’d have more complications than the UK did,” said Hubertus Bardt, the executive director of IW and co-author of the report. “Dexit would mean we’d be 5.5% poorer in the next 5 years,” he added. “This would be a severe economic crisis, one that was predicted a long time ago. It would certainly be especially harmful to companies relying on markets and suppliers from other EU countries.”
Gläser believes a similar solution could preserve free trade. “Why do you think that companies and consumers in Italy, France, Sweden, or anywhere else, wouldn’t want German products if the country is no longer part of the EU?” he says. “Switzerland isn’t in the EU, but it exports to all EU states.”
Bardt, however, considers this idea “unrealistic, nonsensical, and a lot of hot air.” “The destruction of the EU wouldn’t lead to a better model than the current one.”
“Roots” of Anti-EU Sentiment
However, the idea of “Dexit” is not welcomed by the German population. A poll published this year by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), which is aligned with the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), found that 87% of Germans would vote in favor of the EU if there were a referendum.
But why did AfD include such a drastic and unpopular measure in its electoral manifesto? Gläser insists that leaving the EU is the right decision for the German people, whether they like it or not. “We don’t create policies based on opinion polls. We want to implement ideas we believe are necessary and important.”
Wolfgang Schroeder, a political science expert at the University of Kassel, noted that AfD’s position aligns with the principles on which the party was founded: in 2013, it emerged as a party of economists critical of the Euro crisis. Over time, the party shifted to focus more on anti-migration policies, but its Euroscepticism remained, even if less visible in recent years.
AfD, a “Nationalist Party”
“In essence, AfD is a nationalist party,” Schroeder said to DW. “It opposes globalization, which has always carried with it a skeptical attitude toward international authorities. For them, all international organizations, like the EU or the UN, have their own goals and values, and as such, are a threat to the true will of the people.”
But is AfD serious about replacing the EU with a new type of international community, even though this would create “headaches” for the economy and the constitution? “We can answer this question in two ways,” Schroeder says. “On the one hand, we can say that they’re not serious, as they represent a minority and can say whatever they want to paint a picture of a different world.”
Personally, Schroeder thinks AfD’s position is a “bet that costs very little in the short term.” “They’re betting that many countries will eventually agree with their Euroscepticism, and in the future, there will be a new development that moves toward Eurasia, with new economic and political perspectives.”
