The European Commission has effectively put key Hungary-related decisions on hold ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections in mid-April, amid concerns that any new action could fuel Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s anti-EU election campaign, according to sources cited by Euronews.
Officials familiar with the matter said sensitive dossiers — ranging from EU funding decisions to a probe into alleged spying — have been frozen, as Brussels seeks to avoid being accused of interfering in the domestic political process.
“With the Hungarian dossiers, the front lines are frozen, and nothing is happening,” one EU diplomat said. “The Commission is waiting for April and watching opinion polls very closely.”
Fear of Strengthening Anti-EU Rhetoric
Orbán has consistently portrayed Hungary as a victim of Brussels, accusing EU institutions of promoting “war, gender ideology and open borders.” EU officials fear that launching infringement procedures or sanctions during the campaign would reinforce this narrative.
“We don’t want to play into his hand,” a source said, referring to Orbán’s frequent attacks on EU sanctions and legal actions.
Hungary was fined €1 million per day by the European Court of Justice in 2024 for violating EU asylum rules. Despite this, Orbán has argued that the penalties are “worth paying” to protect national sovereignty.
Budapest Pride Ban Still Unchallenged
The Commission’s inaction has drawn criticism over the ban on Budapest Pride, introduced through legislation passed by the Hungarian parliament last March.
The law effectively forbids participation in Pride events, imposes fines, and allows surveillance through smart cameras. Despite widespread criticism from NGOs and activists, the Commission has not yet completed its legal assessment nor announced formal action.
Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony described the Commission’s silence as a political choice, suggesting Brussels is deliberately avoiding confrontation ahead of the elections.
Spying Allegations Probe Delayed
Another sensitive file concerns allegations that Hungarian officials spied on EU institutions between 2012 and 2018, using Hungary’s permanent representation in Brussels.
The Commission launched an internal inquiry into the role of Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, Hungary’s former EU ambassador and a close ally of Orbán. However, the findings have been delayed, potentially until after the elections.
Officials indicated that forcing Várhelyi’s exit could create further complications, as his current portfolio is considered relatively technical and low-profile.
EU Funds and Financial Decisions on Hold
Financial matters are also stalled. Hungary requested the regrouping of around €4 billion under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), a move that could prevent the loss of funds despite ongoing rule-of-law concerns.
The EU has already frozen most funding for Hungary, with the country losing over €1 billion by the end of 2025 due to missed deadlines. The European Parliament has since called for additional freezes and the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights.
MEP Daniel Freund criticized the Commission’s cautious approach:
“There’s no such thing as suspending the EU treaties because there is an election campaign,” he said, warning that inaction could backfire, as it did during the Brexit referendum.
Is Brussels Waiting for a Political Shift?
Opposition leader Péter Magyar, head of the Tisza Party, is currently leading in opinion polls. Seen as more pro-European and aligned with the European People’s Party (EPP), Magyar is viewed in Brussels as someone who could repair strained EU–Hungary relations, similar to Poland’s shift under Donald Tusk.
Sources suggest that even hardliners within the EPP are advocating restraint, fearing Orbán would exploit EU action for electoral gain.
Defense Spending: A Rare Area of Cooperation
Despite the freeze on most files, defense remains an exception. Under the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, the EU allocated €16 billion to Hungary, the third-largest amount among member states, signaling that security cooperation still transcends political tensions.
