As the 27 EU leaders gather in Brussels today, they are acutely aware that the security order established after 1945, built on the protection of the United States, could collapse at any moment.
Since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, European leaders have frequently discussed sovereignty and defense. However, according to European government officials speaking to Politico, now is the time to turn words into action—despite fears that events may be unfolding faster than they can manage.
French President Emmanuel Macron has warned of the need for an “extraordinary awakening,” while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz dramatically stated that “Europe is five minutes to midnight.” Many close to the discussions fear that events are progressing faster than they can handle.
Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute in London, cautioned, “A nightmare scenario would be if the US were to reach an agreement soon that accepts most of Russia’s demands and then tells Ukraine and Europe to accept or reject it.”
Concerns Over Orban
The fear extends beyond the United States. Some European leaders are also worried about their allies. While Thursday’s summit was urgently convened—just days after informal meetings in Paris and London—it has been suggested that pro-Russian leaders, led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, may try to undermine any agreement.
With numerous topics on the agenda and an apparent lack of unity, the summit could head in different directions. Leaders will discuss how to quickly redirect resources to strengthen national armies, as well as securing support for Ukraine, such as reaffirming its path to EU membership. They will also attempt to further condemn Vladimir Putin’s regime, possibly announcing a new round of sanctions.
In short, the leaders face a tough task ahead.
Von der Leyen’s Plan
One of the key topics of the summit will be the plan announced by Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday—an 800 billion euro package for additional defense spending in the coming years. The most concrete part of the plan involves the EU borrowing 150 billion euros, which will then be given to member states to purchase essential military equipment, including air and missile defense, artillery systems, rockets, ammunition, drones, and other technologies.
Additionally, the European Commission proposes easing EU fiscal rules to allow countries to increase military spending. According to von der Leyen, increasing defense spending to 1.5% of GDP over the next four years would mean an additional investment of 650 billion euros in defense.
While this plan has been in the works for some time, EU sources claim that von der Leyen’s press conference on Tuesday was, in fact, a response to the US decision to reduce its aid to Ukraine. The European Investment Bank has also proposed changes to its rules to make defense project financing easier. Diplomats are still analyzing the details of the proposal, but most view it as a step in the right direction.
“Von der Leyen is trying to seize the initiative,” said a French minister, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The only question is whether the EU bureaucracy will follow suit.”
Orban Blocks Additional Aid for Ukraine
Intense discussions are already underway about sending additional military aid to Ukraine. The final statement from the summit was expected to include a plan, presented last month by the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, which would see at least 1.5 million artillery shells delivered to Ukraine this year, along with air defense systems, rockets, and drones.
While an official statement won’t emerge before the summit concludes, a draft circulated among diplomats on Tuesday evening and seen by Politico calls for ministers to find a way to ensure continued weapon deliveries. However, Hungary has already made it clear that it opposes the plan. The draft text emphasizes that the EU “will continue to provide Ukraine with regular and predictable financial assistance.”
In 2025, the EU plans to provide Ukraine with 30.6 billion euros, including 12.5 billion from the Ukraine Relief Package and 18 billion from G7 credits under the “Epoch Initiative.” Additional funding could come from the EU’s European Reversal Plan, which von der Leyen presented on Tuesday.
As European leaders debate the steps they will take, decisive messages are coming from Ukraine. “Very painful, but not fatal,” said a senior Ukrainian official to Politico. “This will cause unnecessary casualties and territorial losses, but it will not lead to our defeat.”
