NATO allies are gathering in Washington for a high-level meeting from July 9 to 11. The potential return of Donald Trump, a staunch critic of the military alliance, to power is dominating discussions among allies.
NATO, comprising 32 European and North American countries committed to mutual defense against armed attacks, will emphasize strength through solidarity as it celebrates its 75th anniversary during the meeting starting Tuesday.
Joe Biden, who has rallied allies into a global network to help Ukraine fight Russian aggression, has called the alliance more united than ever.
However, behind the scenes, a dominant theme is preparing for potential divisions amid the rise of far-right parties, unfriendly to NATO, both in the U.S. and other countries, including France. This has raised concerns about how strong the support for the alliance and military aid to Ukraine from NATO member countries will be.
During the first presidential debate, Biden asked Trump whether he would stay in NATO or withdraw. Trump’s ambiguous or indifferent gestures did not clarify his stance.
Biden’s poor debate performance raised concerns and numerous questions about whether the 81-year-old is fit for office or should withdraw from the presidential race.
Even before the debate, European governments have been in continuous consultations on what they can do to ensure that NATO, Western support for Ukraine, and the security of each individual NATO member country survive, even if Trump wins the November elections.
Discussions are also underway about a potential reduction in the American contribution to the alliance.
Some Americans and Europeans have dubbed this effort “a Trump-proof NATO” or “future-proof” when it comes to the alliance’s impact from the rise of other far-right political blocs in Europe.
This week’s meeting, held in the city where the mutual defense alliance was founded in 1949, was expected to be a celebration of NATO’s resilience. Now, said a European official, this outlook seems “grim.”
There are two reasons for this: Russia’s advances on the battlefield in months when Republican allies of Trump in Congress delayed arms and American funding for Ukraine, and the possibility of far-right, NATO-unfriendly governments coming to power.
The official spoke to journalists last week on condition of anonymity.
Rachel Rizzo, a senior member of the non-partisan Atlantic Council institute, gave a clear message to Europeans: “Fear of a second Trump mandate doesn’t help anyone.”
For allies at the meeting, she said, the key will be resisting the temptation to dwell on unprecedented events in U.S. politics and focusing on preparations for Western military aid to Ukraine or a reduction in U.S. support.
Trump, who has spoken admiringly of Russian President Vladimir Putin and harshly of NATO both during and after his presidency, often focuses his complaints on the alliance’s costs and what the U.S. pays.
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 led the West to believe that the Russian threat was neutralized, resulting in military spending cuts. Now NATO allies are strengthening their forces against any broader aggression from Putin, and a record number of NATO countries, 23, are meeting defense spending targets.
Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, said the former president, in a second term, would work to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. Congress passed a law last year making this harder, but a president could simply stop cooperating with some or all NATO missions.
Elections in France are also expected to bring the far-right, anti-NATO party led by Marine Le Pen to greater power. Far-right forces are gaining ground in Germany as well.
Some European officials and analysts say this is merely a sign of declining voter loyalty to democracy, which NATO has faced before.
They cite the example of Poland, where a right-wing party lost power last year, and its supporters had been among NATO’s staunchest backers. They also highlight Italy, where right-wing populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has earned praise as an ally.
Europeans say they want to “institutionalize” support for Ukraine within NATO, reducing dependence on the U.S.
European allies also failed to acquire enough weapons for Ukraine during a delay in a U.S. foreign aid package, admitted outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a visit to Washington last month.
This is “one of the reasons why I believe we need a stronger role in NATO,” Stoltenberg told journalists.
An initiative likely to be supported at the meeting is for NATO to take on more responsibility for coordinating training and military and financial aid for Ukraine’s forces, instead of the U.S. Europeans are also discussing giving Ukrainians a greater presence within NATO bodies, though there is no consensus yet for Ukraine to join the alliance.
Europeans say NATO countries are coordinating statements on Ukraine to make clear, for example, that further escalation by Russia would face strong sanctions and other penalties from the West, even if a new Trump administration in the U.S. would not act.
Trump’s campaign officials did not immediately respond to an email for comment.
The possibility of a partner less dependent on the U.S. under Trump as president is sparking discussions about a greater European role in NATO’s nuclear deterrence program, according to the Poland-based Center for Security Studies. The U.S. currently plays a decisive role in nuclear weapons deployed in Europe.
But European countries and Canada, with their smaller military budgets and economies, are years away from filling any major NATO gap that the U.S. might create.
“If an American president comes into office and says: we’re done with NATO, there will be willingness in Europe to fill the American role,” said John Deni, a senior fellow for security at the Atlantic Council. “The British would take this on.”
But “they will also admit they don’t have the capacity or the capability and can’t do it with the speed and scale that the U.S. can,” he adds.
“The concept that we’re making NATO Trump-proof or future-proof, I think that’s mostly a fantasy.”
