A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring, and European allies must maintain their support despite a growing corruption scandal surrounding Kyiv, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb told The Associated Press during an interview at a military training site north of Helsinki on Saturday.
Stubb underscored that Europe will need “sisu” — the Finnish concept of endurance, grit, and resilience — to navigate the difficult months ahead as Russia continues its hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining Western resolve.
As a key intermediary between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Stubb plays a crucial diplomatic role. Finland, which shares a 1,340-km border with Russia, has historic perspective; after losing 10% of its territory to Moscow in the 1940s, the country embraced neutrality — until Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine pushed Helsinki to join NATO in 2023.
“I can explain to President Trump what Finland went through, how I see the battlefield situation, how to deal with Putin — and if he accepts even one idea out of ten, that’s considered a success,” Stubb stated.
Key Highlights from Stubb’s Remarks:
- No ceasefire likely before spring 2026: Stubb warns that despite diplomatic efforts, a peace negotiation or cessation of hostilities will probably not begin until March at the earliest.
- Kyiv must address corruption: The scandal involving alleged kickbacks and embezzlement in Ukraine is “playing into Moscow’s hands”, Stubb said, adding urgency to reforms in Kyiv.
- Boosting Ukraine’s defense capacity: Stubb praised Trump’s recent sanctions on Russian oil giants, but stressed that Europe must mobilize frozen Russian assets and boost Ukraine’s long-range strike capability.
- Russia hasn’t shifted: According to Stubb, Secretary of State Marco Rubio realized during talks that “the Russians haven’t moved an inch”, prompting Trump to cancel a planned meeting with Putin.
- Strategic patience: Stubb noted that dealing with Trump’s vacillations requires patience: “You can’t have illusions. You need reality and sisu.”
Despite the challenges, Stubb praised Zelenskyy’s leadership under wartime conditions, saying:
“To lead a country in war is existential. You learn a lot about a person’s resilience and character.”
With the war nearing its fourth year, Stubb believes that a secure peace will require three long-term solutions:
- Security guarantees for Ukraine
- Rebuilding its economy
- Resolving territorial disputes
For now, he stresses, Europe must brace itself and stay united. The coming winter may test the continent’s resolve, but as Stubb reminded, “sisu” is not just a Finnish word — it’s a way forward.
