It’s hard to imagine it could have gone worse.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House had great potential.
It could have produced an agreement on mineral resources that would have united Ukraine and the United States – at least on paper – and could have pushed U.S. President Donald Trump to support Kyiv in its defense against the Russian invasion.
It could have also provided some clarity about what kind of security guarantees – if any – the U.S. would be willing to offer Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia.
And, if nothing else, Zelensky and Trump could have cooled off after last week’s exchange of criticisms.
But the tensions flared up once again – more than ever before. Zelensky left the White House early after being scolded by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office.
The agreement on minerals remained unsigned, and the joint press conference was canceled.
The extraordinary exchange raised doubts not only about the fate of the natural resources deal but also about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine and the prospects for any kind of agreement that would stop or end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Damage Could Be Significant
The minerals deal Trump and Zelensky were supposed to sign was only a framework agreement, and analysts estimated that, at this point, its value would be largely symbolic: a chance for both presidents to claim diplomatic victories and a way for the Trump administration to justify past and possibly future aid to Ukraine, after raising questions about whether it should continue.
Trump welcomed the draft agreement as an important step in what is considered a difficult road to peace in Ukraine.
So, whenever it would have been signed, it would have given Kyiv and Washington the chance to work together for a potential ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia.
Beyond the minerals deal, the question now is whether the United States will turn its back on Ukraine, cutting off or limiting the ongoing military aid, or whether it will continue efforts to reach a ceasefire or peace plan with Russia, but abandoning Kyiv in the process.
The Rift May Persist, or Maybe Not
The tense meeting in the Oval Office was yet another low point in the difficult relationship between Trump and Zelensky, which has been rocky since Zelensky became president in 2019.
But it may not be the end of the road. It happened just as it seemed that the damage from some previous criticisms – during which Trump called Zelensky a “dictator” and Zelensky said Trump was influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda – was being repaired.
Asked ahead of Zelensky’s visit about his description of him as a “dictator,” Trump responded: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that.”
For Zelensky, the desire to secure further assistance from the U.S. and the hope for a security deal backed by U.S. power are unlikely to disappear, despite the difficult visit to the White House. So, even after the dramatic meeting, there is still a small chance that relations could improve.
U.S.-Europe Division Could Widen
Relations between the U.S. and most of the European Union have been strained since Trump returned to office for his second term on January 20. The differences have to do with policies toward Ukraine and Russia, as well as a number of other issues – from trade to liberal values.
Tensions came to the surface when Vance criticized Europe during his speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, saying that its internal processes posed a greater threat than Russia, China, or any other external factor to its welfare.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were in Washington this week in an attempt to overcome the differences, especially regarding what should be done about Russian aggression and the war in Ukraine.
If Zelensky’s visit had gone well, it could have brought greater unity between the U.S. and Europe.
But the opposite may happen, especially after the disagreement in the Oval Office, which reignited transatlantic tensions, while many European leaders expressed solidarity with Ukraine.
In a post on X in Ukrainian, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Zelensky: “Be strong, be brave, be unshaken,” assuring him that “you will never be alone.”
“We will continue to work with you for a just and lasting peace,” von der Leyen said.
Blow to the Chances for a “Just Peace”
When Zelensky and European leaders talk about a “just and lasting peace,” they mean peace that does not favor Russia and weaken Ukraine, leaving it under Moscow’s control or vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
When Trump called Putin on February 12 and sent high-ranking officials to meet their Russian counterparts in Riyadh six days later – thus overturning the efforts of his predecessor, Joe Biden, to isolate Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine – it caused fear in Kyiv and Brussels about the potential negotiation of a bad deal for Ukraine.
If the Zelensky-Trump meeting had gone well, it might have helped reduce these concerns.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said it was important for Trump to meet with him before meeting Putin.
But the meeting in the Oval Office went terribly, and these concerns are likely to rise again.
