French Prime Minister François Bayrou used special executive powers today to pass the budget without a parliamentary vote. As a result, he now faces a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, just like his predecessor. His six-week-old government could be dissolved if the vote passes.
Opposition parties are expected to launch the no-confidence process later today, with a vote scheduled for Wednesday.
It remains uncertain whether opponents of Bayrou’s government will secure a majority, as happened in December when former Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed over a similar budget dispute. If Bayrou survives the vote, France will finally have a budget. If he loses, the country will plunge into further political and economic turmoil.
Bayrou is the fourth French prime minister in just over a year.
French Politics in Chaos
France’s political scene has been in disarray since President Emmanuel Macron, reacting to his centrist party’s poor performance in the European elections, called for early parliamentary elections. The result was a fragmented parliament with no clear majority, leaving one of the world’s largest economies without a budget. This situation has alarmed investors and created problems for the eurozone, which includes 20 EU countries.
France is under pressure from the European Union to reduce its massive debt and deficit. This crisis is unfolding at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening Europe with tariffs, showing interest in acquiring Greenland (a Danish overseas territory), and Russia is becoming emboldened in Ukraine.
Despite revisions to the unpopular austerity-focused budget that caused the previous government’s downfall, opposition parties argue that the changes are still insufficient. As a result, Bayrou resorted to bypassing parliament, just as Barnier did before him.
No-Confidence Vote Dynamics
The far-left party France Unbowed announced it would initiate the no-confidence vote against Bayrou. It is expected to receive support from the Communist and Green parties, though their votes alone will not be enough to bring down the government.
The Socialist Party, whose votes could be decisive, has stated that it will not back the no-confidence motion because “France needs a budget.” However, it is unclear whether all Socialist lawmakers will follow party leadership’s guidance.
The far-right National Rally has not yet declared its position. Its lawmakers will receive voting instructions on the day of the decision, Wednesday.
If Bayrou’s government falls, Macron will once again need to find a new prime minister capable of forging a consensus on the budget.
