Declaring that “Serbia’s vital interests are endangered,” Vucic has raised concerns about stability in the Balkans, which must be addressed seriously and taken into account, wrote the French newspaper “Le Figaro” today by researcher Florent Parmentier, who draws a parallel with the situation in Ukraine, report “Beta” and “Bota Sot.”
According to Parmentier, the statement can be interpreted in two ways: “If the statement is part of the president’s rhetorical action, then Serbia remains in the game of negotiations, or we are facing a conflict, I personally commit to the first option,” said the French expert.
He believes that the second option for a potential conflict could only occur if “Serbia considers itself sufficiently armed to go on the offensive, knowing that Russia will not come to its defense” as it is preoccupied with Ukraine.
Parmentier expresses doubt that “Serbia would risk militarily supporting the separation of Srpska from Bosnia.”
“Militarily, it’s doubtful, but the war in Ukraine nonetheless opened a second front in the Middle East. If there was ever a possibility for the conflict to reignite after 25 years, it could happen now. Would the Serbian president risk being excluded from the Council of Europe? It’s likely. But will he succeed in avenging the scenario of 25 years ago? That’s not a probable outcome,” he assessed.
However, if this scenario were to unfold, it could happen in the near future.
Regarding the ties between Serbia and Russia, Parmentier considers Russia a useful card for Vucic because it allows him to rally nationalists and show domestically that Serbia is not alone on the international stage.
He believes that in two aspects, Serbia might be interested in conflict: “Firstly, high-intensity warfare requires people and a lot of ammunition, I have no doubt that nationalists want to fight, but the Balkans today are in a relatively weak demographic situation,” hence the French expert does not see that “Serbia could sustainably maintain its victories” in the event of high-intensity conflict.
On the other hand, a potential conflict would force Bosnia to make concessions, while the geo-political situation does not favor Bosnia or the Europeans, because they (the Europeans) are unable to help as they did two years ago, as products and reserves are being sent to Ukraine, states the French researcher.
