Germany’s prosperity can only be sustained through immigration, as one study warns that the labor market will face significant decline without foreign workers. In the coming years, approximately 288,000 foreign workers will be needed annually to ensure a stable labor force.
According to a report commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation, Germany’s labor market will increasingly rely on immigration. “In order to meet labor demand and secure Germany’s welfare, immigration from third countries is becoming ever more important,” states the study. By 2040, Germany will need 288,000 foreign workers each year to maintain a sufficient workforce.
The analysis projects that without additional immigration, the number of workers will shrink significantly—from 46.4 million today to 41.9 million by 2040, with a potential drop to 35 million by 2060, representing a 25% reduction.
Labor Market Faces Major Challenges
“Demographic changes, driven by the retirement of current generations, will present major challenges for Germany’s labor market, which requires immigration,” explains Suzanne Schulz, a migration expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation. “Of course, efforts must also focus on developing domestic labor potential—among both local residents and already settled individuals—and increasing their participation in the workforce. However, the future needs by 2040 cannot be met solely through this approach.”
The reformed skilled labor immigration law offers new opportunities for workers interested in coming to Germany. However, the study points out that successful integration will require a strong “culture of welcome” in institutions, businesses, and communities, alongside long-term perspectives for immigrants to stay.
Varied Impact Across Germany’s States
By 2024, not all of Germany’s states will be equally affected by the need for immigration. The study predicts that the greatest labor force decline will occur in Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and the Saarland regions, with a loss of more than 10%. In contrast, cities such as Hamburg, Berlin, and Brandenburg will experience smaller declines, below 10%.
The need for immigration varies by region, with states seeing different structural changes. Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Berlin, and Hamburg will require the most foreign workers, particularly in areas where the demand for labor is growing faster than the decline in available workforce.
