Since March 15, the United States has intensified its air campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, claiming to have struck over 1,000 targets. The strikes aim to halt Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and increase pressure on Iran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.
However, despite the scale of the bombardment, analysts question whether the campaign has had any lasting strategic effect.
“The Houthis remain determined,” said Colin Clarke, policy and research director at the Soufan Group, a New York-based security consultancy.
He emphasized that although some of the rebels’ infrastructure has been destroyed and personnel killed, the group seems to have turned the campaign to its advantage.
“Any losses are likely short-term and temporary,” Clarke told Radio Free Europe, noting increased recruitment and fundraising efforts by the Houthis in response to the attacks.
Jeremy Binnie, a defense analyst at the intelligence company Janes, added that the rebels’ ongoing ability to launch attacks — particularly against Israel and U.S. drones — undermines American claims of degrading their capabilities.
“It’s becoming increasingly embarrassing for the U.S. every time the Houthis strike Israel or shoot down an MQ-9 drone,” Binnie said.
A recent U.S. Navy admission that an F/A-18 fighter jet fell from the USS Harry S. Truman while maneuvering to evade a Houthi strike only fueled the perception that the group continues to pose a serious threat.
The Houthis have also continued firing rockets toward Israel, claiming responsibility on May 2 for two airstrikes that triggered air raid sirens across the country and were repelled by the Israel Defense Forces.
Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command insists that the air campaign has slowed the tempo and effectiveness of Houthi attacks.
“Ballistic missile launches are down by 69%, and drone attacks have fallen by 55%,” CENTCOM stated on April 27.
“Iran continues to support the Houthis. These rebels could not continue to target our forces without backing from the Iranian regime.”
Have the Strikes Affected U.S.-Iran Relations?
Analysts warn that instead of isolating the Houthis from Tehran, the airstrikes may have tightened their alliance.
Officially known as Ansarallah, the Houthis — designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. — are a key member of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a network of non-state actors that suffered setbacks last year.
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis have expanded their role in this alliance, claiming attacks against Israel and Israeli-linked vessels, which they frame as acts of solidarity with Palestinians.
While their rising profile has given the Houthis more autonomy, experts stress they remain heavily dependent on Iran for weapons and strategic guidance.
“We know what the U.S. military is capable of — and you’ve been warned,” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X (formerly Twitter) on May 1, addressing Iran directly.
“You will face consequences at a time and place of our choosing.”
Yet Clarke contends the strikes may have only strengthened the Houthi-Iran relationship.
“The strikes have brought the Houthis closer to Iran,” he said, doubting whether a future nuclear deal would change Tehran’s behavior.
Binnie expressed similar skepticism.
“U.S. officials may hope the campaign pressures Iran,” he said, “but it’s hard to say that’s happening.”
The fourth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, originally scheduled for May 3 in Rome, was postponed for what mediators from Oman called “logistical reasons.”
After weeks of relentless bombing, the United States appears no closer to stopping Houthi attacks or weakening the group’s political resolve — raising difficult questions about the strategic value of this prolonged military campaign.
