Iran has been a significant supplier of military equipment to Russia in recent years, especially since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, experts have told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that this support no longer plays a key role in Moscow’s war effort.
According to a Bloomberg report dated January 12, citing an anonymous Western security official, Iranian missile sales to Russia — including air-defense missiles and ballistic missiles — have reached $2.7 billion since October 2021.
Trade volumes are not publicly disclosed by Moscow, and Iran denies supplying Russia with any weapons.
“As long as the conflict continues between the parties, Iran will refrain from providing any form of military assistance to either side,” Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations said in a statement last May.
Evidence suggests otherwise, particularly Russia’s extensive use of Iranian-made Shahed attack drones in the early stages of the war against Ukraine. However, the value of this support now appears to have declined significantly.
Drones
“Although there have still been some transfers of Iranian drones — at least until last year, some newer drone models were still being transferred from Iran — I think we have long passed the peak of Iranian defense transfers to Russia,” Hanna Notte, head of the Eurasia Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told RFE/RL on January 14.
Ruslan Suleymanov, an analyst at the Center for New Eurasian Strategies, shared a similar view.
“Russia is no longer as dependent on Iranian weapons as it was four years ago. The same Shahed drones are produced on Russian territory under the name Geran, and around 90% of the entire production cycle of these drones is now fully localized in Russia, without Iranian assistance,” he told Current Time on January 13.
Iran provided Russia with technology and training, and a factory in Alabuga, in Russia’s Tatarstan region, is now producing Geran drones on a continuous basis.
According to Ukraine, Russia produces about 5,000 long-range drones of various types each month. This includes the Geran strike drone and the Gerbera, a decoy drone without a warhead used to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Missiles
In April, General Christopher Cavoli, then head of U.S. Central Command, told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that “Iran also continued its material support to Russia, donating over 400 short-range ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.”
In May, Reuters reported that Iran would also send Fath-360 missile launchers, though Tehran denied this. Earlier, in September 2024, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said that Fath-360 missiles had been delivered.
This was followed in October 2024 by U.S. sanctions against two Russian shipping companies for delivering drone components and ammunition via the Caspian Sea for use in Ukraine.
“The State Department is taking action today to further restrict Iran’s destabilizing activities, including the transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia,” the statement said.
The European Union followed suit days later, imposing sanctions on three Iranian airlines and two procurement companies “following the transfer of missiles and drones from Iran to Russia.”
However, there have been no reports of the Fath-360 missile being used in Ukraine. Notte said this could be because the launchers were never delivered or because Russia did not need them, as it ramped up domestic production and received supplies from North Korea.
A report published in February last year by RUSI, a London-based research institute, noted that Russia’s Defense Ministry planned to produce around 750 ballistic missiles and 560 cruise missiles in 2025. Ukrainian military intelligence has since provided even higher production estimates.
“Russia may simply not have needed to use these Iranian missiles,” Notte said.
Ammunition
Iran is believed to have sent large quantities of ammunition and shells to Russia since 2022. A Wall Street Journal investigation in 2023 estimated the figures at 300,000 artillery shells and about 1 million rounds of ammunition.
Ukrainian drone strikes in 2025 suggested that military supplies were still flowing. In April, Russian media reported the first attacks on the Caspian port of Olya, followed by further reports of strikes in August.
Olya has been identified as a key hub for Iranian military supply shipments.
A report by the Kyiv School of Economics last year detailed volumes of explosives being transported by ship and rail from both Iran and North Korea. The report said supplies from North Korea now account for 58% of Russia’s explosive imports.
Notte added that shells and ammunition from North Korea have also surpassed Iranian supplies in scale.
“Ukrainians estimated last year that 50% of all ammunition used by Russia in Ukraine came from North Korea. So my sense is that once North Korea emerged as a major military supplier to Russia, there was probably no longer a need for Iranian ammunition,” she said. /RFE/RL
