Hungary’s opposition party Tisza is on track to win a two-thirds parliamentary majority in Sunday’s elections, potentially allowing it to amend the constitution and key laws necessary to unblock European Union funds, according to a projection from polling agency Median released Wednesday.
Veteran nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party face their toughest challenge in 16 years, as the center-right Tisza, led by Peter Magyar, leads in independent opinion polls.
Tisza is projected to secure between 138 and 142 seats in Hungary’s 199-member parliament, based on an analysis of Median’s five most recent opinion polls conducted in late February and March. Fidesz is expected to win between 49 and 55 seats, while the far-right Our Homeland Party (Mi Hazank) is estimated to take five or six seats.
A party needs 133 seats in Hungary’s parliament to achieve the supermajority required to amend the constitution and key legislation. Fidesz has held a two-thirds majority for most of its rule since 2010, using that power to enact a new constitution and pass and amend several major laws, including electoral legislation.
Median, known for its strong track record in Hungarian electoral predictions, reported that the five polls had a total sample size of 5,000, conducted across three separate calling centers. The agency accurately forecast Orban’s landslide victory in the previous election four years ago, though it slightly overestimated opposition support.
While most polls show Tisza leading, Fidesz cites surveys that still suggest Orban’s party remains on track to win. Opposition critics argue these polls are mostly conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
