In light of the war in Ukraine, the Baltic Sea has become the scene of multiple incidents involving damage to key energy and communication lines.
In the latest incident, an underwater cable between Latvia and Sweden was damaged on January 26, raising suspicions of sabotage and fueling concerns over Russian interference. This incident also highlights Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet.
Swedish authorities boarded a Bulgaria-owned vessel sailing from Russia and launched an investigation into possible sabotage activities. Both Riga and Stockholm have stated that the damage to the underwater communication cables was likely caused by external influence.
This event follows a series of recent incidents in which underwater pipelines and cables have been damaged by ships traveling to or from Russian ports.
A Pattern of Maritime Incidents
In December, an oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet was suspected of damaging underwater connections near Finland’s shores after dragging its anchor across them. A month earlier, a Chinese vessel was involved in another similar incident. Another Chinese ship, sailing from Russia, also damaged a gas pipeline in the Baltic in October 2023.
As investigations continue, these incidents have raised alarm among European governments, who suspect Moscow is targeting underwater infrastructure as part of its broader hybrid warfare strategy.
“There is little chance of having four such incidents in a row,” said Frank Juris, a researcher at the Tallinn-based Sinopsis Institute.
A New Normal in the Baltic Sea
The recent incidents underscore growing tensions in the Baltic Sea since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
After the cable damage in December, the European Union threatened new sanctions against Moscow, and NATO launched enhanced patrols and surveillance operations.
Blame for the incident has been placed on an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet, which consists of vessels with unclear ownership that transport Russian oil products under embargo.
While global attention has focused on Russia’s use of its shadow fleet to evade Western sanctions, the number of such vessels has increased beyond just tankers.
EU governments have warned about the rising maritime risks associated with these Russian vessels.
Earlier in January, an aging ship carrying 100,000 tons of oil, believed to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet, was blocked near Germany’s northern coast.
At the time, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock blamed Moscow, accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of circumventing sanctions and endangering European security by deploying “a fleet of rusting tankers.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the alliance’s new mission in the Baltic would involve increased aerial, naval, and drone patrols. He warned of “serious concern” regarding infrastructure damage and stated that NATO would respond by boarding ships and even seizing vessels involved in future incidents.
German prosecutors are still investigating the September 2022 explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline, which once connected Russia to Germany.
What Happens Next?
Swedish authorities have pledged to work closely with their Latvian counterparts to investigate the possible sabotage, but identifying those responsible remains challenging.
While Moscow’s denials of involvement have been met with skepticism by European officials, German Interior Minister Boris Pistorius has labeled the November incident an act of sabotage, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb has linked the December event to Russia. However, investigations remain open.
Alexander Kalchev, CEO of the Bulgarian shipping giant Navibulgar, which owns the vessel seized by Swedish authorities, stated on January 27 that while it was possible the ship had damaged the cable, it was not an act of intentional sabotage. He claimed the vessel encountered “extreme weather conditions” and dragged its anchor across the seabed.
The Chinese government offered a similar explanation when it notified Finland and Estonia nearly a year after an October 2023 incident in which a Chinese vessel damaged an underwater pipeline by dragging its anchor for hundreds of nautical miles.
Most experts argue that when a ship drops its anchor and drags it across the seabed for an extended distance, the crew would notice and alter the vessel’s course.
“Dragging an anchor for such a long time is unlikely to go unnoticed or continue for an extended period,” Juris stated.
