The authorities in Kosovo, recently, have frequently warned about a possible danger that could threaten the state from its northern neighbor, Serbia. But whenever they talk about such a threat, they do not leave without mentioning Belgrade’s ally, Russia, which they say is interested in destabilizing the north of Kosovo and the region.
According to the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, Belgrade and Moscow have one thing in common: they want expansion.
For President Vjosa Osmani, Serbia is “an extended hand of Russia”, which is trying to play “the games of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, opening a new front towards the West”.
And, according to Speaker Glauk Konjufca, Belgrade is preparing for an eventual attack or provocation against Kosovo, like the one that was carried out in September against the Kosovo Police in Banjska.
However, the Serbian Prime Minister, Milosh Vučević, has described the warnings that Kosovo is threatened as “media drama”, saying that such a thing “is nothing but a fog for its Western sponsors”.
Turning attention away from the war in Ukraine
The threat of a possible escalation in the north of Kosovo “is big and real”, estimates Ivana Stradner, senior researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, based in Washington.
She tells Radio Free Europe that this is because Russia – which does not recognize Kosovo’s independence – is seeking to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, where, according to her, it is not performing well.
For this, according to Stradner, Russia is looking for “vulnerable points in the West, and the most vulnerable point currently in Europe is the Balkans: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.”
Precisely the north of Kosovo and the threats of secession of a part of Bosnia were described by the United States as the main security risks in the region, where the possibility of using force to solve the issues should be excluded.
Even Adrian Shtuni, an expert on foreign policy and security based in Washington and an associate of the International Center for Counter-Terrorism, in The Hague, does not rule out the possibility of violent incidents in Kosovo, since, he says, there are circles in Serbia that aim destabilization.
In a statement for Radio Free Europe, Stuni says that, according to the indicators on the ground, the likelihood of an escalation has not increased compared to three or six months ago.
Another aspect in this matter, according to Stun, is that the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, has received a clear message from Washington that “any violent aggression against Kosovo and against KFOR peacekeeping forces will be unacceptable”.
Stuni shares the same opinion with Stradner that, any new center of crisis, or the rekindling of old centers in the Western Balkans, “would suit Russia’s interests, as it would distract the attention of NATO countries and partners others who have sided with Ukraine”.
Stradner, meanwhile, does not believe that there will be a large-scale conflict in the Western Balkans, like the one in Ukraine. However, she claims that in the Balkans there are activities that can be considered “hybrid war”.
“The use of force may also be involved, because, according to Russia’s military strategy, hybrid warfare is not only disinformation, cyber security, sabotage and others, but also includes things like the use of force,” she warns.
Stradner expresses concern about the narratives being pushed by Russia that the West is supposedly trying to open a new front, and that President Putin wants to tell the West that, “if you don’t want the Balkans to escalate, then you have to negotiate with me “.
The role of KFOR and sanctions
But the Prime Minister of Kosovo, in an article published in the New York Times, said that the opening of a new front in the Balkans would serve Russia and Serbia, “since Serbia may try to gain territory through aggression, and Russia may to strengthen control over Serbia as its satellite, and to distract the world from its war in Ukraine”.
Stradner and Shtuni agree that Serbia may have territorial goals towards Kosovo. Stuni advises coordination with KFOR and Kosovo’s strategic partners to prevent any escalation, while Stradner says that the West should send a clear signal to Belgrade that if it acts in Kosovo, KFOR will act.
The Western military alliance told Radio Free Europe that the deployment of 1,000 additional troops in Kosovo last year was among the steps taken to ensure that “KFOR has the strength and capacity to fulfill its mandate”.
Last year, the north of Kosovo was permeated by high tensions: Serb protests against Albanian leaders, which culminated in clashes with KFOR members, were followed months later by an armed attack on the Kosovo Police by a group of Serbs.
After the attack in Banjska of Zveçan, for which Prishtina blames Belgrade, the authorities in Kosovo also said that they were investigating possible Russian links to this attack.
Officials in Kosovo have demanded that Serbia be sanctioned for the attack in Banjska, warning that, otherwise, such an attack could be repeated.
Stradner agrees that sanctions against specific people would be a good way to prevent potential threats in the future. /REL/
